Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 019

Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 019

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON GONI (INENG) UPDATE NUMBER 019
Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Sunday 23 August 2015
Next Update: Monday Morning, 24 August 2015

Typhoon GONI (INENG) has moved northeastward during the past 6 hours as it regained back its strength...about to exit the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Its southwestern outer rainbands has already left the Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands, however, cloudiness associated with the enhanced monsoon will continue to bring on-and-off rains across the area.

GONI will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing occasional to frequent rains with thunderstorms across Western Luzon, Palawan incl. Calamian Group, Cuyo and Pamalican Islands, Panay, Lubang Island, Mindoro, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, and Metro Manila today and through the next two days. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Ryukyus, and Western Japan should closely monitor the development of TY GONI (INENG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL [together with the effect of the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) being directly enhanced by GONI (INENG)]

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands, Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), Ilocos Provinces, some portions of La Union, Western Zambales, Westernmost part of Pangasinan and Occidental Mindoro - Today through Monday Morning.

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Rest of Pangasinan, Northern Palawan incl. the Calamian Group of Islands, Western Panay incl. Iloilo City and portions of Negros Occidental incl. Bacolod City - Today through Monday Morning.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, August 23...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY GONI (INENG)
Location: Over the northern part of the East Taiwan Sea or along the Yaeyama Islands (near 24.1N 123.8E)
About: 441 km north-northeast of Basco, Batanes...or 67 km southwest of Ishigakijima
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 160 kph near the center...Gustiness: 195 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 520 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds 100 kph or more wind gusts): 140 km from the center
Past Movement: Northeast @ 12 kph
Forecast Movement: Northeast @ 26 kph
Towards: Ryukyus

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY GONI (INENG) is expected to move northeastward during the next 24 hours...accelerating and turning to the north-northeast on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, GONI will be passing just to the north of Okinawa on Monday afternoon (Aug 24). It shall then make landfall over the Northwestern Kyushu on Tuesday morning (Aug 25)...and emerging over the Sea of Japan Tuesday afternoon.

TY GONI (INENG) will continue to regain strength within 24 hours...and shall start weakening anew at the end of the outlook period. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing back to 175 kph on Monday afternoon (Aug 24)...and decreasing to 140 kph on Tuesday afternoon (Aug 25).

The following is the 2-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to re-intensify as it passes to the north of Okinawa and the Ryukyus...about 163 km north-northwest of Okinawa, Japan [2PM AUG 24: 27.9N 127.3E @ 175kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Turns north-northeastward...increases its forward speed while moving across the Northeastern part of Kyushu, Japan...starts to weaken...becoming an Extratropical Cyclone...about 149 km north-northeast of Fukuoka, Japan [2PM AUG 25: 34.8N 130.8E @ 140kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun Aug 23, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 24.1º N Lat 123.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 224 km E of Hualien City, Taiwan
Distance 2: 244 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 420 km NE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 4: 482 km WSW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 1093 km NNE of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph