Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 016

Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 016

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON GONI (INENG) UPDATE NUMBER 016
Issued at: 7:15 PM PhT (11:15 GMT) Saturday 22 August 2015
Next Update: Sunday Early Morning, 23 August 2015

Typhoon GONI (INENG) is now starting to move slowly north-northeastward away from the Batanes Group...However, its southwestern inner and outer rainbands will continue to bring stormy weather across the area including Extreme Northern Luzon this evening. The WeatherPhilippines Automated Weather Station (AWS) No. 980638 - Basco Airport BSO (Philippine Airlines) - has recorded wind gusts of 102 down to 87 km/hr between 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM (07:00-10:00 GMT) today.

GONI will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing occasional to frequent rains with thunderstorms across Western Luzon, Palawan incl. Calamian Group, Cuyo and Pamalican Islands, Panay, Lubang Island, Mindoro, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, and Metro Manila today and through the next two to three days. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Ryukyus, and Western Japan should closely monitor the development of TY GONI (INENG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL [together with the effect of the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) being directly enhanced by GONI (INENG)]

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Batanes Group of Islands, Calayan Island, Northern and Central Cagayan, Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), Ilocos Provinces, and some portions of La Union - Today.

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Zambales, Western Pangasinan, and the Rest of Northern Luzon (except for Isabela and Northern Aurora) - Today.

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Rest of Pangasinan, Nueva Vizcaya, and other parts of Central Luzon - Today.

WINDS

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Batanes Group of Islands and Babuyan Island - Today.

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1.2-1.7 m (4-5 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Batanes Group of Islands - today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, August 22...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY GONI (INENG)
Location: Over the eastern part of Bashi Channel (near 20.9N 122.9E)
About: 104 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes...or 425 km south-southwest of Ishigakijima
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 140 kph near the center...Gustiness: 175 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 520 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds 100 kph or more wind gusts): 130 km from the center
Past Movement: North-Northeast @ 10 kph
Forecast Movement: North-Northeast @ 19 kph
Towards: Yaeyama-Ryukyus Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY GONI (INENG) is expected to move north-northeastward with increasing forward speed during the next 24 hours...turning slightly to the northeast on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, GONI shall be traversing the northern part of the Bashi Channel and East Taiwan Sea tonight through Sunday. It will be over the Yaeyama Island Chain by Sunday afternoon (Aug 23)...before moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). By Monday afternoon (Aug 24), GONI shall be passing just to the north of Okinawa while heading towards the Northern part of Ryukyu Islands.

TY GONI (INENG) will slightly regain strength throughout the outlook period. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 165 kph on Sunday afternoon through Monday (Aug 24).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Slightly reintensifies and gains speed...passing across the Yaeyama Island Chain and about to exit PAR...about 24 km south of Ishigakijima [2PM AUG 23: 24.3N 124.2E @ 165kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Turns slightly to northeastward...maintaining its fast speed and strength across the East China Sea...passing just north of Okinawa and across the Northern Ryukyus...about 200 km north of Okinawa, Japan [2PM AUG 24: 28.3N 127.9E @ 165kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Significantly accelerates as it starts transitioning into an Extra-Tropical (Middle-Latitude) Cyclone while crossing Western Japan...just barely a Typhoon...about 55 km west of Hiroshima, Japan [2PM AUG 25: 34.4N 131.8E @ 140kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat Aug 22, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 20.9º N Lat 122.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 115 km E of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 2: 230 km NE of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 3: 277 km NNE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 729 km NNE of Metro Manila
Distance 5: 798 km SW of Okinawa, Japan

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph