Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 010

Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 010

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON GONI (INENG) UPDATE NUMBER 010
Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday 21 August 2015
Next Update: Friday Afternoon, 21 August 2015

Typhoon GONI (INENG) has slightly weakened as it continues to move slowly in a generally westerly track...nearing Northern Cagayan and Batanes Area...expected to pass close to Basco and Itbayat, Batanes by Saturday early morning through the afternoon (Aug 22). The WeatherPhilippines Automated Weather Stations (AWS) based in Cagayan and Batanes have recorded wind gusts of 91 to 104 km/hr between 5:00 to 6:00 AM today.

GONI will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing occasional to frequent rains with thunderstorms across Palawan incl. Calamian Group, Cuyo and Pamalican Islands, the western sections of Negros Occidental, Western Visayas, Lubang Island, Mindoro, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, and Metro Manila today and through the weekend. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan and Ryukyus should closely monitor the development of TY GONI (INENG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Batanes Group of Islands, Calayan Island, and Northeastern Cagayan - Today.

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Ilocos Provicnes, La Union, Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), and Northern Cagayan - Today.

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Pangasinan, Zambales, Rest of Cagayan, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Some portions of Isabela - Today.

WINDS

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Batanes Group of Islands, Calayan Island, and the Northeasternmost part of Cagayan particularly Port Santa Ana - Today through Saturday morning (Aug 22).

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Rest of Northern and Northwestern Cagayan incl. Babuyan Islands - Today.

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 4-5.5 m (13-18 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon espeically the Batanes Group of Islands - beginning Friday through Sunday. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern and Central Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, August 21...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY GONI (INENG)
Location: Over the northeasternmost part of the Balintang Channel (near 19.1N 123.1E)
About: 185 km southeast of Basco, Batanes...or 116 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 185 kph near the center...Gustiness: 220 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center and to the southwest): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 630 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds 100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center
Past Movement: West @ 10 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest to Northwest @ 05 kph
Towards: Batanes Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY GONI (INENG) is expected to slow down further during the next 24 hours as it starts to recurve...then turns to the north and north-northeast with slightly increasing forward speed on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, GONI shall be passing close to the east of Batanes Group on Saturday (Aug 22).

TY GONI (INENG) will gradually weaken throughout the outlook period. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 160 kph on Sunday early morning (Aug 23).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to recurve at a very slow speed...as it approaches the Batanes Group of Islands...weakens further...about 84 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes [2AM AUG 22: 20.0N 122.6E @ 175kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns north-northeastward across the Bashi Channel through East Taiwan Sea...continues to weaken...about 299 km north-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2AM AUG 23: 22.9N 123.3E @ 160kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Accelerates as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) via the northern border...continues losing strength...about 173 km northeast of Ishigakijima, Japan [2AM AUG 24: 25.8N 125.3E @ 140kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri Aug 21, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 19.1º N Lat 123.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 169 km E of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 2: 223 km NE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 3: 233 km SE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 4: 558 km NNE of Metro Manila
Distance 5: 556 km SSE of Hualien City, Taiwan

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph