Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 018

Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 018

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON GONI (INENG) UPDATE NUMBER 018
Issued at: 8:15 AM PhT (00:15 GMT) Sunday 23 August 2015
Next Update: Sunday Evening, 23 August 2015

Typhoon GONI (INENG) is now moving generally northward across the East Taiwan Sea...farther away from the Batanes Group of Islands. Its southwestern outer rainbands are still bringing occasional rains across the Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands.

GONI will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing occasional to frequent rains with thunderstorms across Western Luzon, Palawan incl. Calamian Group, Cuyo and Pamalican Islands, Panay, Lubang Island, Mindoro, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, and Metro Manila today and through the next two days. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Ryukyus, and Western Japan should closely monitor the development of TY GONI (INENG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL [together with the effect of the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) being directly enhanced by GONI (INENG)]

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands, Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), Ilocos Provinces, some portions of La Union, Western Zambales, Westernmost part of Pangasinan and Occidental Mindoro - Today through Monday Morning.

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Rest of Pangasinan, Northern Palawan incl. the Calamian Group of Islands, Western Panay incl. Iloilo City and portions of Negros Occidental incl. Bacolod City - Today through Monday Morning.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, August 23...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY GONI (INENG)
Location: Over the mid-easternmost part of the East Taiwan Sea (near 22.9N 123.3E)
About: 309 km north-northeast of Basco, Batanes...or 205 km southwest of Ishigakijima
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 140 kph near the center...Gustiness: 175 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 250 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds 100 kph or more wind gusts): 140 km from the center
Past Movement: North @ 19 kph
Forecast Movement: North-Northeast to Northeast @ 15 kph
Towards: Ryukyus

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY GONI (INENG) is expected to move north-northeast during the next 24 hours...accelerating and turning to the northeast on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, GONI will be moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early Monday morning (Aug 24). It shall then traverse the East China Sea...and will be approaching the western coast of Kyushu, Japan on Tuesday early morning (Aug 25).

TY GONI (INENG) will slightly regain strength within 24 hours...and shall start weakening anew at the end of the outlook period. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing back to 165 kph on Monday early morning (Aug 24)...and decreasing to 160 kph on Tuesday early morning (Aug 24).

The following is the 2-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Slightly re-intensifies while crossing the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) ...about 93 km northeast of Ishigakijima [2AM AUG 24: 25.3N 124.8E @ 165kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns northeastward...increases its forward speed while moving across the eastern part of the East China Sea on its way to western Japan...starts to decay...about 137 km west-southwest of Kagoshima City, Japan [2AM AUG 25: 25.3N 124.8E @ 160kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun Aug 23, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 22.9º N Lat 123.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 280 km NNE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 2: 452 km NNE of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 3: 516 km NNE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 598 km SW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 965 km NNE of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph