Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 017

Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 017

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON GONI (INENG) UPDATE NUMBER 017
Issued at: 1:30 AM PhT (17:30 GMT) Sunday 23 August 2015
Next Update: Sunday Morning, 23 August 2015

Typhoon GONI (INENG) has moved a little bit faster towards the north-northeast in the general direction of Yaeyama and Ryukyu Islands...farther away from Batanes...likely to move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Sunday night. Its southwestern outer rainbands is still bringing occasional rains with strong winds across Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands. The vast network of WeatherPhilippines Automated Weather Stations (AWS) across Ilocos Provinces and Cagayan have recorded 200 to 400 mm of accumulated rainfall (24-hours) during the close passage of GONI.

GONI will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing occasional to frequent rains with thunderstorms across Western Luzon, Palawan incl. Calamian Group, Cuyo and Pamalican Islands, Panay, Lubang Island, Mindoro, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, and Metro Manila today and through the next two to three days. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Ryukyus, and Western Japan should closely monitor the development of TY GONI (INENG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL [together with the effect of the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) being directly enhanced by GONI (INENG)]

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), Ilocos Provinces, and some portions of La Union - Tonight through Sunday Evening.

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Western Zambales, Westernmost part of Pangasinan, and the Rest of Northern Luzon (except for Isabela and Northern Aurora) - Tonight through Sunday Evening.

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Rest of Pangasinan, Nueva Vizcaya, and other parts of Central Luzon - Tonight through Sunday Evening.

WINDS

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Batanes Group of Islands - Until Early Sunday Morning.

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1.2-1.7 m (4-5 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Batanes Group of Islands - today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 PM PhT yesterday, August 22...1500 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY GONI (INENG)
Location: Over the northeastern part of Bashi Channel (near 21.9N 123.2E)
About: 208 km northeast of Basco, Batanes...or 310 km south-southwest of Ishigakijima
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 140 kph near the center...Gustiness: 175 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds 100 kph or more wind gusts): 130 km from the center
Past Movement: North-Northeast @ 19 kph
Forecast Movement: North-Northeast to Northeast @ 17 kph
Towards: Yaeyama-Ryukyus Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY GONI (INENG) is expected to continue moving north-northeast with increasing forward speed during the next 24 hours...turning slightly to the northeast on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, GONI will pass over the Yaeyama Island Chain by late Sunday afternoon or evening (Aug 23)...before moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). On Monday evening (Aug 24), GONI shall be over the northern part of Ryukyus as it approaches the western coast of Kyushu, Japan.

TY GONI (INENG) will slightly regain strength within 24 hours...and shall start weakening anew at the end of the outlook period. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing back to 165 kph on Sunday evening...and decreasing to 160 kph on Monday evening (Aug 24).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SUNDAY EVENING: Slightly re-intensifies while passing across the Yaeyama Island Chain and exiting PAR...about 67 km east-northeast of Ishigakijima [8PM AUG 23: 24.9N 124.7E @ 165kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
MONDAY EVENING: Turns slightly to northeastward...increases its forward speed while moving across Northern Ryukyus...starts to decay...about 281 km southwest of Kagoshima City, Japan [8PM AUG 24: 29.6N 128.8E @ 160kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
TUESDAY EVENING: Significantly accelerates while crossing Kyushu and Westernmost Honshu...starts transitioning into an Extra-Tropical (Middle-Latitude) Cyclone while over the Sea of Japan...just a Tropical Storm...about 201 km north of Hiroshima, Japan [2PM AUG 25: 36.2N 132.6E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sat Aug 22, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 21.9º N Lat 123.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 190 km NE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 2: 339 km NNE of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 3: 392 km NNE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 692 km SW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 841 km NNE of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph