Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SOUDELOR Update #002

Typhoon SOUDELOR (HANNA) Update Number 002

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON SOUDELOR (HANNA) UPDATE NUMBER 002
Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Wednesday 05 August 2015
Next Update: Thursday Morning, 06 August 2015

SOUDELOR (HANNA) no longer a Super Typhoon as it continues to move across the eastern part of the North Philippine Sea in the general direction of Taiwan. This typhoon will not directly affect any part of the Philippines, however, its outermost rainbands is likely to affect Extreme Northern Luzon beginning Friday until Saturday.

This cyclone, although far, will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring occasional to frequent rains with thunderstorms across Palawan, Western Mindanao, Negros Island Region, and Western Visayas today through the weekend. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Ryukyus and Southeastern China should closely monitor the development of TY SOUDELOR (HANNA).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

None.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, August 05...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY SOUDELOR (HANNA)
Location: Over the eastern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 19.9N 133.1E)
About: 1,155 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan...or 1,160 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 185 kph near the center...Gustiness: 220 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 400 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 790 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 150 km north and 160 km south from the center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 23 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 21 kph
Towards: Taiwan

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY SOUDELOR (HANNA) is expected to maintain its generally west-northwest track and forward speed throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, SOUDELOR will be traversing the central part of the North Philippine Sea on Thursday afternoon...and shall be approaching the eastern coastline of Taiwan on Friday afternoon (Aug 07).

TY SOUDELOR (HANNA) will continue on its temporary weakening trend within the next 12 to 24 hours due to its continuing passage over lower Oceanic Heat Content (OHC) off the North Philippine Sea. By the remainder of the outlook period, the typhoon will again regain wind intensity. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 175 kph by Thursday afternoon and increasing back to 205 kph on Friday afternoon (Aug 07).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Traversing the central part of the North Philippine Sea...weakens further...about 730 km east of Basco, Batanes [2PM AUG 06: 20.8N 129.0E @ 175kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Maintaining its WNW track across the western part of the North Philippine Sea...regains strength as it nears the East Coast of Taiwan...about 320 km northeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM AUG 07: 22.4N 124.3E @ 205kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Over Taiwan Strait, very near the east coast of Southeastern China...weakens to a minimal Typhoon...about 140 km east of Xiamen City, China [2PM AUG 08: 24.6N 119.5E @ 150kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed Aug 05, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 19.9º N Lat 133.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 910 km SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 1180 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 1310 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 1225 km ENE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 1405 km ENE of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph