Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 005

Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 005

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON GONI (INENG) UPDATE NUMBER 005
Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Thursday 20 August 2015
Next Update: Thursday Morning, 20 August 2015

Typhoon GONI (INENG) has re-intenified during the past 6 hours as it moves on a decreasing westerly track towards Extreme Northern Luzon...will directly affect Northern Cagayan and the Batanes Group of Islands on Friday and Saturday (Aug 21-22).

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of TY GONI (INENG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Northern portions of Northern Cagayan - Beginning Friday early morning (Aug 21).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Rest of Northern and Eastern Cagayan - Beginning Friday early morning (Aug 21).

WINDS

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Northeastern Cagayan - Beginning Friday early morning (Aug 21).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 PM PhT yesterday, August 19...1500 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY GONI (INENG)
Location: Over the mid-southernmost part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.9N 126.7E)
About: 523 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes...or 476 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 195 kph near the center...Gustiness: 230 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center and to the north): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 680 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center
Past Movement: West @ 18 kph
Forecast Movement: West @ 12 kph
Towards: Batanes Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY GONI (INENG) is expected to slow down further as it maintains its westerly track for the next 24 hours...and shall gradually turn to the west-northwest to northwest with a much decreasing speed through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, GONI will be traversing the southwesternmost part of the North Philippine Sea tonight through Thursday evening (Aug 21)...and shall move closer to Batanes Group on Friday evening (Aug 21).

TY GONI (INENG) will continue to regain wind intensity during the next 24 to 36 hours...and shall begin to weaken by 48 hours. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 205 kph on Thursday evening (Aug 20)...and down to 200 kph by Friday evening (Aug 21).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

THURSDAY EVENING: Regains strength as it moves west slowly closer to Extreme Northern Luzon...about 320 km southeast of Basco, Batanes [8PM AUG 20: 19.0N 124.2E @ 205kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
FRIDAY EVENING: Approaches Extreme Northern Luzon...starts to gradually turn NW to Northward...about 170 km southeast of Basco, Batanes [8PM AUG 21: 19.9N 123.0E @ 200kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SATURDAY EVENING: Starts to slowly accelerate northward to north-northeastward away from the Batanes Area...loses strength...about 160 km northeast of Basco, Batanes [8PM AUG 22: 22.7N 123.4E @ 175kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Wed Aug 19, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 18.9º N Lat 126.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 530 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 547 km ENE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 3: 548 km ESE of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 4: 554 km SE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 5: 764 km NE of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph