Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update #002

Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 002

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON GONI (INENG) UPDATE NUMBER 002
Issued at: 7:15 AM PhT (23:15 GMT) Wednesday 19 August 2015
Next Update: Wednesday Afternoon, 19 August 2015

Typhoon GONI (INENG) has started to slow down as it continues to weaken. This strong tropical cyclone may directly affect Extreme Northern Luzon...particularly the Batanes Group of Islands on Friday and Saturday (Aug 21-22).

Meanwhile, at 5:00 am today, the eye of Typhoon ATSANI (17W), the other strong typhoon over the Northwestern Pacific Ocean, was located some 1,045 km northeast of Guam or about 3,110 km east-northeast of the Philippines (18.3N 153.2E)... with maximum sustained winds of 205 kph near the center and gustiness up to 250 kph. It was moving Northwest at 22 kph during the past 6 hours. ATSANI is not a threat to the Philippine Islands as none of the Global Dynamic Forecast Models show a track towards the Philippines.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of TY GONI (INENG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

None for the next 24 hours.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, August 19...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY GONI (INENG)
Location: Over the southernmost part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.7N 130.3E)
About: 890 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes...or 855 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 175 kph near the center...Gustiness: 215 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center and to the north): 100 to 400 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 600 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center
Past Movement: West @ 26 kph
Forecast Movement: West to West-Northwest @ 20 kph
Towards: Batanes Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY GONI (INENG) is expected to slow down as it moves in a generally westerly track throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, GONI will be traversing the southwesternmost part of the North Philippine Sea today through early Thursday...and shall move closer to Northern Cagayan and Batanes Group on Friday early morning (Aug 21).

TY GONI (INENG) will slowly regain its strength during the next 24 to 48 hours. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 185 kph on Thursday (Aug 20)...re-intensifying to 195 kph by Friday early morning (Aug 21).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Regains strength as it moves west to west-northwest closer to Extreme Northern Luzon...about 470 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes [2AM AUG 20: 19.0N 126.2E @ 185kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Approaches Extreme Northern Luzon with a slight increase in its wind strength...gradually slows down...about 190 km southeast of Basco, Batanes [2AM AUG 21: 19.3N 123.3E @ 195kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns north-northwest to northward very slowly while passing close to the east of the Batanes Islands...starts to weaken...about 85 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2AM AUG 22: 20.6N 122.8E @ 175kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed Aug 19, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 18.7º N Lat 130.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 915 km ENE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 2: 920 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 920 km E of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 925 km ESE of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 5: 1085 km NE of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph