Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 015

Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 015

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON GONI (INENG) UPDATE NUMBER 015
Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Saturday 22 August 2015
Next Update: Saturday Evening, 22 August 2015

Typhoon GONI (INENG) continues to move slowly in a generally northerly track...passing very close to the east of the Batanes Group of Islands. Its innermost rainbands and circulation are currently causing stormy weather across the area. The WeatherPhilippines Automated Weather Station (AWS) based in Basco National Airport, Batanes (PAL) has recorded wind gusts of 83 km/hr at 12:00 PM (04:00 GMT) today.

GONI will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing occasional to frequent rains with thunderstorms across Palawan incl. Calamian Group, Cuyo and Pamalican Islands, Panay, Lubang Island, Mindoro, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, and Metro Manila today and through the next two to three days. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan and Ryukyus should closely monitor the development of TY GONI (INENG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL [Together with the effect of the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) being directly enhanced by GONI (INENG)]

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Batanes Group of Islands, Calayan Island, Northern and Central Cagayan, Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), Ilocos Provinces, and some portions of La Union - Today.

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Zambales, Western Pangasinan, and the Rest of Northern Luzon (except for Isabela and Northern Aurora) - Today.

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Rest of Pangasinan, Nueva Vizcaya, and other parts of Central Luzon - Today.

WINDS

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Batanes Group of Islands - Today.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Babuyan Islands - Today.

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1.2-1.7 m (4-5 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Batanes Group of Islands - today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, August 22...0300 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY GONI (INENG)
Location: Over the southeastern part of Bashi Channel (near 20.4N 122.6E)
About: 63 km east of Basco, Batanes...or 215 km north-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 150 kph near the center...Gustiness: 185 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 450 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds 100 kph or more wind gusts): 140 km from the center
Past Movement: North @ 11 kph
Forecast Movement: North-Northeast @ 17 kph
Towards: Batanes-Ryukyus Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY GONI (INENG) is expected to move north-northeastward with increasing forward speed during the next 24 hours...turning slightly to northeast on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, GONI shall be traversing Bashi Channel and East Taiwan Sea today through Sunday...before moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Sunday evening (Aug 23)...on its way to the northern islands of Ryukyus.

TY GONI (INENG) will slightly regain strength throughout the outlook period. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 165 kph on Sunday morning (Aug 23).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SUNDAY MORNING: Slightly reintensifies and gains speed...passing across the southeastern part of East Taiwan Sea...about 383 km north-northeast of Basco, Batanes [8AM AUG 23: 23.4N 124.0E @ 165kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
MONDAY MORNING: Turns slightly to northeast...maintaining its speed and strength...exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and emerges over the East China Sea...about 141 km west-northwest of Okinawa, Japan [8AM AUG 24: 26.7N 126.4E @ 165kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
TUESDAY MORNING: Significantly accelerates as it turns more to the northeast, passing close to the west of Okinawa... weakens...about 72 km northeast of Kagoshima, Japan [8AM AUG 25: 32.2N 130.9E @ 140kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat Aug 22, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 20.4º N Lat 122.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 168 km NE of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 2: 252 km NNE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 94 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 4: 325 km NNE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 5: 678 km NNE of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph