Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SOUDELOR Update #005

Typhoon SOUDELOR (HANNA) Update Number 005

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON SOUDELOR (HANNA) UPDATE NUMBER 005
Issued at: 7:15 AM PhT (23:15 GMT) Friday 07 August 2015
Next Update: Friday Evening, 07 August 2015

Typhoon SOUDELOR (HANNA) has slightly re-intensified as it moves closer to Taiwan and now pose a serious threat to the area. Its outermost rainbands now beginning to affect Extreme Northern Luzon.

This cyclone, although far, will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing occasional to frequent rains with thunderstorms across Palawan incl. Calamian Group, Cuyo and Pamalican Islands, Western Mindanao, Negros Island Region, Western Visayas, and Occidental Mindoro today through the weekend. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Ryukyus and Southeastern China should closely monitor the development of TY SOUDELOR (HANNA).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

None.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, August 07...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY SOUDELOR (HANNA)
Location: Over the western part of the North Philippine Sea (near 21.7N 126.3E)
About: 465 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes...or 545 km southeast of Hualien City, Taiwan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 165 kph near the center...Gustiness: 205 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 220 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 690 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 205 km north and 95 km south from the center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 20 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 23 kph
Towards: Taiwan
CPA [ETA] to Eastern Taiwan: Saturday Early Morning [between 3AM-5AM PhT]

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY SOUDELOR (HANNA) will continue moving in a generally west-northwest track throughout the outlook period...with a decrease in its forward speed within the next 36 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, SOUDELOR will be traversing the western part of the North Philippine Sea through Friday afternoon...and shall pass across East Taiwan Sea by Friday evening...making landfall along the coast of Eastern Taiwan...just south of Hualien City on Saturday early morning (Aug 08) sometime between 3am to 5am.

TY SOUDELOR (HANNA) is expected to continue re-intensifying within the next 12 to 24 hours...and shall lose strength anew after crossing Taiwan (36 to 48 hours)...weakening into a strong Tropical Storm (TS). The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing back to 175 kph by Saturday early morning...and decreasing once again to 95 kph on Sunday early morning (Aug 09).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Just along the coast of Eastern Taiwan...winds speed at its peak...about 80 km south-southeast of Hualien City, Taiwan [2AM AUG 08: 23.3N 121.8E @ 175kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens after traversing Taiwan...makes its second and last landfall over Fujian Province in Southeastern China...just a TS...about 95 km north-northwest of Xiamen City, China [2AM AUG 09: 25.3N 117.8E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to dissipate over Southeastern China...barely a TS as it turns to the north-northwest...about 595 km west-southwest of Shanghai, China [2AM AUG 10: 28.6N 116.0E @ 65kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri Aug 07, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 21.7º N Lat 126.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 370 km SE of Ishigakijima
Distance 2: 475 km ENE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 565 km NE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 605 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 970 km NE of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph