Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SOUDELOR Update #006

Typhoon SOUDELOR (HANNA) Update Number 006

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON SOUDELOR (HANNA) UPDATE NUMBER 006
Issued at: 7:15 PM PhT (11:15 GMT) Friday 07 August 2015
Next Update: Saturday Morning, 08 August 2015

Typhoon SOUDELOR (HANNA) has further intensified as it moves closer to Taiwan...posing a serious threat to the area. Its outermost rainbands are currently affecting Extreme Northern Luzon.

This cyclone, although far, will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing occasional to frequent rains with thunderstorms across Palawan incl. Calamian Group, Cuyo and Pamalican Islands, Western Mindanao, Negros Island Region, Western Visayas, and Occidental Mindoro today through the weekend. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Ryukyus and Southeastern China should closely monitor the development of TY SOUDELOR (HANNA).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

None.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, August 07...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY SOUDELOR (HANNA)
Location: Over the southernmost part of the Ryukyu Sea (near 22.7N 124.2E)
About: 335 km northeast of Basco, Batanes...or 300 km east-southeast of Hualien City, Taiwan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 195 kph near the center...Gustiness: 230 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center and to the southwest): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 720 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 220 km north and 120 km south from the center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 20 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 22 kph
Towards: Taiwan
CPA [ETA] to Eastern Taiwan: Saturday Early Morning [between 2AM-4AM PhT]

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY SOUDELOR (HANNA) will continue moving in a generally west-northwest track during the next 24 hours...turning northwest through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, SOUDELOR will be traversing the East Taiwan Sea tonight...making landfall along the coast of Eastern Taiwan, just south of Hualien City on Saturday early morning (Aug 08) sometime between 2am to 4am...and shall traverse Central Taiwan through Saturday afternoon.

TY SOUDELOR (HANNA) is expected to weaken within the next 24 hours after it makes landfall over Taiwan. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 160 kph by Saturday afternoon (Aug 08).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens after traversing Taiwan...over Taiwan Strait...about 205 km east-southeast of Xiamen City, China [2PM AUG 08: 24.3N 120.1E @ 160kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Turns northwest...makes its second and last landfall over Fujian Province in Southeastern China...just a TS...moves inland, about 310 km west-northwest of Fuzhou City, China [2PM AUG 09: 27.3N 116.5E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Turns north...weakens into a Tropical Depression over Southeastern China...about 520 km west-southwest of Shanghai, China [2PM AUG 10: 30.6N 116.0E @ 65kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri Aug 07, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 22.7º N Lat 124.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 200 km S of Ishigakijima
Distance 2: 325 km NE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 510 km NNE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 360 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 970 km NNE of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph