Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 012

Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 012

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON GONI (INENG) UPDATE NUMBER 012
Issued at: 7:45 PM PhT (11:45 GMT) Friday 21 August 2015
Next Update: Saturday Early Morning, 22 August 2015

Typhoon GONI (INENG) has remained almost stationary during the past 6 hours while over the Balintang Channel...still endangering Batanes Group of Islands. Its innermost rainbands likely to directly pass across this group of islands by Saturday early morning through the afternoon (Aug 22). The WeatherPhilippines Automated Weather Station (AWS) based in Basco National Airport, Batanes (PAL) has recorded wind gusts of 119 km/hr at 7:50 PM (11:50 GMT) today.

GONI will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing occasional to frequent rains with thunderstorms across Palawan incl. Calamian Group, Cuyo and Pamalican Islands, the western sections of Negros Occidental, Western Visayas, Lubang Island, Mindoro, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, and Metro Manila today and through the weekend. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan and Ryukyus should closely monitor the development of TY GONI (INENG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Batanes Group of Islands, Calayan Island, Northern and Central Cagayan, Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), Ilocos Provinces, and some portions of La Union - Today through Saturday afternoon (Aug 22).

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Zambales, Western Pangasinan, and the Rest of Northern Luzon (except for Isabela and Northern Aurora) - Today through Saturday afternoon (Aug 22).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Rest of Pangasinan, Nueva Vizcaya, and other parts of Central Luzon - Today through Saturday afternoon (Aug 22).

WINDS

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Batanes Group of Islands, Calayan Island, and the Northeasternmost part of Cagayan particularly Port Santa Ana - Today through Saturday afternoon (Aug 22).

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Rest of Northern and Northwestern Cagayan incl. Babuyan Islands - Today through Saturday morning (Aug 22).

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1.8-2.6 m (6-8 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially the Batanes Group of Islands - beginning today through Sunday. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern and Central Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, August 21...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY GONI (INENG)
Location: Over the central part of the Balintang Channel (near 19.3N 122.4E)
About: 140 km south-southeast of Basco, Batanes...or 91 km north-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 175 kph near the center...Gustiness: 215 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center and to the east): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 600 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds 100 kph or more wind gusts): 130 km from the center
Past Movement: West @ 04 kph
Forecast Movement: North to North-Northeast @ 10 kph
Towards: Batanes Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY GONI (INENG) is expected to move north to north-northeastward slowly during the next 24 hours...and shall accelerate on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, GONI shall be passing close to the east of Batanes Group on Saturday morning (Aug 22)...and shall be over the Yaeyama Islands, very near to the west of Ishigakijima on Sunday afternoon (Aug 23).

TY GONI (INENG) will continue to gradually weaken throughout the outlook period. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 150 kph on Sunday afternoon (Aug 23).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Moves north to north-northeastward slowly...passing very close to the east of Batanes Islands...weakens further...about 115 km northeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM AUG 22: 21.1N 122.9E @ 165kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to move north-northeastward with increasing forward speed across the East Taiwan Sea...off the Yaeyama Islands...continues to weaken...about 51 km west of Ishigakijima, Japan [2PM AUG 23: 24.5N 123.8E @ 150kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Accelerates further as it turns northeastward over the East China Sea, passing just to the northwest of Ryukyu Islands...weakens into a minimal Typhoon...about 170 km northwest of Okinawa, Japan [2PM AUG 24: 27.8N 126.9E @ 130kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri Aug 21, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 19.3º N Lat 122.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 94 km E of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 2: 124 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 178 km SSE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 4: 203 km NNE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 5: 541 km NNE of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph