Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 009

Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 009

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON GONI (INENG) UPDATE NUMBER 009
Issued at: 12:30 AM PhT (16:30 GMT) Friday 21 August 2015
Next Update: Friday Morning, 21 August 2015

Powerful Typhoon GONI (INENG) continues to slowly move nearer to Northern Cagayan and Batanes Area...expected to pass close to Basco and Itbayat, Batanes by Friday evening through Saturday morning. The WeatherPhilippines Automated Weather Stations (AWS) based in Cagayan and Batanes have recorded wind gusts ranging from 76 to 107 km/hr at 12 midnight.

GONI will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing occasional to frequent rains with thunderstorms across Palawan incl. Calamian Group, Cuyo and Pamalican Islands, the western sections of Negros Occidental, Western Visayas, Lubang Island, Mindoro, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, and Metro Manila today and through the weekend. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan and Ryukyus should closely monitor the development of TY GONI (INENG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Batanes Group of Islands, Calayan Island, and Northeastern Cagayan - Tonight through Friday evening (Aug 21).

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Ilocos Provicnes, La Union, Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), and Northern Cagayan - Tonight through Friday evening (Aug 21).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Pangasinan, Zambales, Rest of Cagayan, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Some portions of Isabela - Tonight through Friday evening (Aug 21).

WINDS

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Batanes Group of Islands, Calayan Island, and the Northeasternmost part of Cagayan particularly Port Santa Ana - Friday morning through Saturday morning (Aug 21-22).

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Rest of Northern and Northwestern Cagayan incl. Babuyan Islands - Tonight until Friday evening (Aug 21).

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 4-5.5 m (13-18 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon espeically the Batanes Group of Islands - beginning Friday through Sunday. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern and Central Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 PM PhT today, August 20...1500 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY GONI (INENG)
Location: Over the northeasternmost part of the Balintang Channel (near 19.1N 123.7E)
About: 229 km southeast of Basco, Batanes...or 176 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 200 kph near the center...Gustiness: 240 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center and to the south): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 560 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center
Past Movement: West to West-Northwest @ 11 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest to Northwest @ 06 kph
Towards: Batanes Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY GONI (INENG) is expected to move west-northwest then northwest very slowly during the next 24 hours...and shall turn to the north and north-northeast on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, GONI shall be passing close to the east of Batanes Group on Friday through Saturday afternoon (Aug 22).

TY GONI (INENG) will slightly intensify during the next 12 to 24 hours...then starts losing strength through 48 hours. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 205 kph on Friday morning (Aug 21)...weakening to 195 kph on Saturday evening (Aug 22).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

FRIDAY EVENING: Moving very slowly northwest as it approaches the Batanes Group of Islands...strengthens further...about 95 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes [8PM AUG 21: 20.1N 122.8E @ 205kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SATURDAY EVENING: Recurving north-northeastward across the Bashi Channel...starts to weaken...about 247 km northeast of Basco, Batanes [8PM AUG 22: 22.2N 123.4E @ 195kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
SUNDAY EVENING: Accelerates as it continues to move to the north-northeast exiting the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...continues losing strength...about 69 km northeast of Ishigakijima, Japan [8PM AUG 23: 25.0N 124.7E @ 175kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Thu Aug 20, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 19.1º N Lat 123.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 232 km E of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 2: 269 km NE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 3: 274 km SE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 4: 577 km NNE of Metro Manila
Distance 5: 576 km SSE of Hualien City, Taiwan

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph