Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 014

Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 014

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON GONI (INENG) UPDATE NUMBER 014
Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Saturday 22 August 2015
Next Update: Saturday Afternoon, 22 August 2015

Typhoon GONI (INENG) continues to weaken as it starts to move northward slowly...closer to the east of the Batanes Group of Islands. Its innermost rainbands will be passing across the area today. The WeatherPhilippines Automated Weather Station (AWS) based in Basco National Airport, Batanes (PAL) has recorded wind gusts of 120 km/hr at 12:00 AM (16:00 GMT) today.

GONI will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing occasional to frequent rains with thunderstorms across Palawan incl. Calamian Group, Cuyo and Pamalican Islands, the western sections of Negros Occidental, Western Visayas, Lubang Island, Mindoro, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, and Metro Manila today and through the next two to three days. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan and Ryukyus should closely monitor the development of TY GONI (INENG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Batanes Group of Islands, Calayan Island, Northern and Central Cagayan, Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), Ilocos Provinces, and some portions of La Union - Today.

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Zambales, Western Pangasinan, and the Rest of Northern Luzon (except for Isabela and Northern Aurora) - Today.

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Rest of Pangasinan, Nueva Vizcaya, and other parts of Central Luzon - Today.

WINDS

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Batanes Group of Islands, Calayan Island, and the Northeasternmost part of Cagayan particularly Port Santa Ana - Today.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Rest of Northern and Northwestern Cagayan incl. Babuyan Islands - Today.

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1.8-2.6 m (6-8 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially the Batanes Group of Islands - today. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern and Central Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, August 22...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY GONI (INENG)
Location: Over the border of Balintang and Bashi Channel (near 19.8N 122.5E)
About: 94 km southeast of Basco, Batanes...or 148 km north-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 160 kph near the center...Gustiness: 195 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center and to the east): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 600 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds 100 kph or more wind gusts): 140 km from the center
Past Movement: North @ 08 kph
Forecast Movement: North-Northeast @ 16 kph
Towards: Batanes Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY GONI (INENG) is expected to move north-northeastward slowly during the next 24 hours...turning to northeast on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, GONI shall be passing across the southeastern part of East Taiwan Sea on Sunday early morning (Aug 23)...and shall be moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late Sunday evening (Aug 23) on its way to the northern islands of Ryukyus.

TY GONI (INENG) will slightly regain strength throughout the outlook period. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 165 kph on Sunday early morning (Aug 23).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Slightly reintensifies and gains speed...passing across the southeastern part of East Taiwan Sea...about 299 km northeast of Basco, Batanes [2AM AUG 23: 22.6N 123.8E @ 165kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns slightly to northeast...maintaining its speed and strength...exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 179 km northeast of Ishigakijima, Japan [2AM AUG 24: 25.6N 125.6E @ 165kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Significantly accelerates as it turns more to the northeast...passing close to the west of Okinawa...starts to weaken again...about 159 km southwest of Kagoshima, Japan [2AM AUG 25: 30.3N 129.9E @ 150kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat Aug 22, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 19.8º N Lat 122.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 119 km NE of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 2: 187 km NNE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 133 km SE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 4: 248 km NNE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 5: 610 km NNE of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph