Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 008

Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 008

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON GONI (INENG) UPDATE NUMBER 008
Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Thursday 20 August 2015
Next Update: Friday Early Morning, 21 August 2015

Powerful Typhoon GONI (INENG) still slowing down as it nears Northern Cagayan and Batanes Area...expected to pass close to Basco and Itbayat, Batanes beginning Friday evening until Saturday afternoon. The WeatherPhilippines Automated Weather Stations (AWS) based in Cagayan and Batanes have recorded wind gusts of 55 to 85 km/hr between 6pm to 7pm this evening.

GONI will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing occasional to frequent rains with thunderstorms across Palawan incl. Calamian Group, Cuyo and Pamalican Islands, the western sections of Negros Occidental, Western Visayas, Lubang Island, Mindoro, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, and Metro Manila today and through the weekend. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of TY GONI (INENG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Batanes Group of Islands, Calayan Island, and Northeastern Cagayan - Tonight through Friday evening (Aug 21).

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Ilocos Provicnes, La Union, Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), and Northern Cagayan - Tonight through Friday evening (Aug 21).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Pangasinan, Zambales, Rest of Cagayan, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Some portions of Isabela - Tonight through Friday evening (Aug 21).

WINDS

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Batanes Group of Islands, Calayan Island, and the Northeasternmost part of Cagayan particularly Port Santa Ana - Friday morning through Saturday morning (Aug 21-22).

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Rest of Northern and Northwestern Cagayan incl. Babuyan Islands - Tonight until Friday evening (Aug 21).

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 4-5.5 m (13-18 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon espeically the Batanes Group of Islands - beginning Friday through Sunday. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern and Central Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, August 20...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY GONI (INENG)
Location: Over the southwesternmost part of the North Philippine Sea (near 19.0N 124.3E)
About: 301 km southeast of Basco, Batanes...or 228 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 200 kph near the center...Gustiness: 240 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center and to the north): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 560 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 140 km from the center
Past Movement: West to WNW @ 12 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 07 kph
Towards: Batanes Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY GONI (INENG) is expected to slow down further while moving west-northwest during the next 24 hours...shall gradually move to the north-northwest to northward slowly through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, GONI shall be passing close to the east of Batanes Group on Friday through Saturday afternoon (Aug 22).

TY GONI (INENG) will continue to intensify during the next 12 to 24 hours...then shall start losing strength through 48 hours. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 215 kph on Friday afternoon (Aug 21)...weakening to 200 kph on Saturday afternoon (Aug 22).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Moving very slowly west-northwest as it approaches the Batanes Group of Islands...strengthens further...about 145 km southeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM AUG 21: 19.6N 123.0E @ 215kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Starts to recurve...turns northward slowly while passing close to the east of Batanes...starts to weaken...about 85 km northeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM AUG 22: 20.9N 122.7E @ 200kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Completes recurvature as it accelerates north-northeastward away from the Batanes Area...continues losing strength...about 392 km north-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM AUG 23: 23.7N 123.6E @ 175kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu Aug 20, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 19.0º N Lat 124.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 296 km ESE of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 2: 315 km ENE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 3: 329 km SE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 4: 611 km NE of Metro Manila
Distance 5: 622 km SSE of Hualien City, Taiwan

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph