Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 006

Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 006

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON GONI (INENG) UPDATE NUMBER 006
Issued at: 7:30 AM PhT (23:30 GMT) Thursday 20 August 2015
Next Update: Thursday Afternoon, 20 August 2015

Powerful Typhoon GONI (INENG) still gaining strength as it maintains its forward speed towards Extreme Northern Luzon...endangers the Batanes Group of Islands. This cyclone will start to affect Northern Cagayan and the Batanes Group of Islands beginning Friday early morning (Aug 21).

GONI will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing occasional to frequent rains with thunderstorms across Palawan incl. Calamian Group, Cuyo and Pamalican Islands, the western sections of Negros Occidental, Western Visayas, Lubang Island, Mindoro, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, and the Rest of Western Luzon including Metro Manila beginning today until the weekend. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of TY GONI (INENG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Batanes Group of Islands, Calayan Island, and Northeastern Cagayan - Beginning Friday early morning (Aug 21).

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Ilocos Provicnes, La Union, Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), and Northern Cagayan - Beginning Friday early morning (Aug 21).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Pangasinan, Northwestern Zambales, Rest of Cagayan, Some portions of Isabela - Beginning Friday early morning (Aug 21).

WINDS

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Northeastern Cagayan incl. Calayan Is. - Beginning Friday early morning (Aug 21).

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 4-5.5 m (13-18 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon espeically the Batanes Group of Islands - beginning Friday through Sunday. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern and Central Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, August 20...2300 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY GONI (INENG)
Location: Over the mid-southernmost part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.9N 125.6E)
About: 417 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes...or 361 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 200 kph near the center...Gustiness: 240 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center and to the north): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 665 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 150 km from the center
Past Movement: West @ 19 kph
Forecast Movement: West to West-Northwest @ 08 kph
Towards: Batanes Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY GONI (INENG) is expected to slow down further as it turns slightly west-northwest during the next 24 hours...and shall gradually turn to the northwest to north-northwest slowly through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, GONI will be traversing the southwesternmost part of the North Philippine Sea today through Friday early morning (Aug 21)...and shall move closer to Batanes Group by early Saturday morning (Aug 22).

TY GONI (INENG) will continue to intensify during the next 12 to 24 hours...and could become a Super Typhoon. Then, between 36 to 48 hours, it shall start to weaken. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 220 kph on Friday early morning (Aug 21)...weakening to 200 kph on Saturday early morning (Aug 22).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Slows down as it approaches Extreme Northern Luzon...becomes a Super Typhoon...about 246 km south-southeast of Basco, Batanes [2AM AUG 21: 19.2N 123.9E @ 220kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Passing close to the east of Batanes Group of Islands...starts to weaken as it turns sharply NNW to Northward...about 125 km east of Basco, Batanes [2AM AUG 22: 20.5N 123.2E @ 200kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to slowly accelerate northward to north-northeastward away from the Batanes Area...continues losing strength...about 340 km north-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2AM AUG 23: 23.3N 123.5E @ 175kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu Aug 20, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 18.9º N Lat 125.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 433 km ESE of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 2: 436 km ENE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 3: 450 km SE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 4: 677 km NE of Metro Manila
Distance 5: 794 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph