Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update #003

Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 003

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON GONI (INENG) UPDATE NUMBER 003
Issued at: 1:30 PM PhT (05:30 GMT) Wednesday 19 August 2015
Next Update: Wednesday Evening, 19 August 2015

Typhoon GONI (INENG) decreases further its forward speed while maintaining its westerly track. This strong tropical cyclone is likely to directly affect Extreme Northern Luzon...particularly the Batanes Group of Islands on Friday and Saturday (Aug 21-22).

Meanwhile, ATSANI (17W) has intensified into a Super Typhoon (STY) as it continues to move northwest over the warm waters of Northwest Pacific. At 11:00 am today, the eye of Typhoon ATSANI (17W) was located some 1,015 km northeast of Guam or about 1,820 km from the eastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) (19.0N 152.3E)... with maximum sustained winds of 220 kph near the center and gustiness up to 280 kph. It is forecast to continue moving Northwest at a slower forward speed of 17 kph. ATSANI is not a threat to the Philippine Islands as none of the Global Dynamic Forecast Models show a track towards the Philippines.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of TY GONI (INENG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

None for the next 24 hours.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, August 19...0300 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY GONI (INENG)
Location: Over the mid-southernmost part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.8N 129.1E)
About: 765 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes...or 740 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 175 kph near the center...Gustiness: 215 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center and to the north): 100 to 400 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 600 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 110 km from the center
Past Movement: West @ 21 kph
Forecast Movement: West @ 17 kph
Towards: Batanes Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY GONI (INENG) is expected to slow down further as it continues to move in a westerly track during the next 24 hours...and shall turn to the west-northwest with much decreasing speed through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, GONI will be traversing the southwesternmost part of the North Philippine Sea today through Thursday morning (Aug 20)...and shall move closer to Northern Cagayan and Batanes Group on Friday morning (Aug 21).

TY GONI (INENG) will slowly regain its strength during the next 24 to 48 hours. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 195 kph on Friday morning (Aug 20).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

THURSDAY MORNING: Regains strength as it moves west closer to Extreme Northern Luzon...about 440 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes [8AM AUG 20: 18.8N 125.8E @ 185kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
FRIDAY MORNING: Approaches Extreme Northern Luzon with a slight increase in its wind strength...gradually slows down...about 270 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes [8AM AUG 21: 19.3N 124.3E @ 195kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SATURDAY MORNING: Turns north-northwest to northward very slowly while passing close to the east of the Batanes Islands...starts to weaken...about 205 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [8AM AUG 22: 21.3N 123.7E @ 175kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Wed Aug 19, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 18.8º N Lat 129.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 790 km ENE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 2: 795 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 780 km E of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 800 km E of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 5: 985 km ENE of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph