Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SOUDELOR Update #004

Typhoon SOUDELOR (HANNA) Update Number 004

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON SOUDELOR (HANNA) UPDATE NUMBER 004
Issued at: 7:15 PM PhT (11:15 GMT) Thursday 06 August 2015
Next Update: Friday Morning, 07 August 2015

Typhoon SOUDELOR (HANNA) has weakened further as it continues to move in a generally west-northwest track towards Taiwan...threatening the area. Its outermost rainbands will likely affect Extreme Northern Luzon on Friday.

This cyclone, although far, will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring occasional to frequent rains with thunderstorms across Palawan, Western Mindanao, Negros Island Region, and Western Visayas today through the weekend. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Ryukyus and Southeastern China should closely monitor the development of TY SOUDELOR (HANNA).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

None.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, August 06...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY SOUDELOR (HANNA)
Location: Over the central part of the North Philippine Sea (near 20.8N 128.4E)
About: 675 km east of Basco, Batanes...or 700 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 160 kph near the center...Gustiness: 195 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 780 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 185 km north and 110 km south from the center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 21 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 21 kph
Towards: Taiwan

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY SOUDELOR (HANNA) is expected to continue moving in a generally west-northwest track throughout the outlook period...with a little fluctuations in its forward speed. On the forecast track, SOUDELOR will be traversing the western part of the North Philippine Sea through Friday afternoon...and shall pass across East Taiwan Sea by Friday evening...making landfall along the coast of Eastern Taiwan on Saturday early morning (Aug 08).

TY SOUDELOR (HANNA) is expected to reintensify within the next 24 to 36 hours...and shall lose strength anew after crossing Taiwan. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing back to 185 kph by Friday (Aug 08).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Traversing the western part of the North Philippine Sea...regains strength...about 325 km northeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM AUG 07: 22.4N 124.4E @ 185kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens after traversing Taiwan...over Taiwan Strait...about 170 km east of Xiamen City, China [2PM AUG 08: 24.5N 119.8E @ 130kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Over Southeastern China...weakens further into a severe tropical storm...about 325 km northwest of Xiamen City, China [2PM AUG 09: 27.0N 116.4E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu Aug 06, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 20.8º N Lat 128.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 635 km S of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 595 km SE of Ishigakijima
Distance 3: 840 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 790 km ENE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 1045 km NE of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph