Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 011

Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 011

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON GONI (INENG) UPDATE NUMBER 011
Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Friday 21 August 2015
Next Update: Friday Evening, 21 August 2015

Typhoon GONI (INENG) continues to gradually lose strength as it moves slowly closer to Batanes...endangering the area...with its innermost rainbands likely to directly pass across this group of islands by Saturday early morning through the afternoon (Aug 22). The WeatherPhilippines Automated Weather Stations (AWS) based in Cagayan have recorded wind gusts of 74 to 98 km/hr between 11:00 AM to 12:00 PM today.

GONI will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing occasional to frequent rains with thunderstorms across Palawan incl. Calamian Group, Cuyo and Pamalican Islands, the western sections of Negros Occidental, Western Visayas, Lubang Island, Mindoro, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, and Metro Manila today and through the weekend. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan and Ryukyus should closely monitor the development of TY GONI (INENG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Batanes Group of Islands, Calayan Island, and Northeastern Cagayan - Today.

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Ilocos Provicnes, La Union, Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), and Northern Cagayan - Today.

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Pangasinan, Zambales, Rest of Cagayan, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Some portions of Isabela - Today.

WINDS

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Batanes Group of Islands, Calayan Island, and the Northeasternmost part of Cagayan particularly Port Santa Ana - Today through Saturday morning (Aug 22).

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Rest of Northern and Northwestern Cagayan incl. Babuyan Islands - Today.

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1.8-2.6 m (6-8 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon espeically the Batanes Group of Islands - beginning today through Sunday. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern and Central Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, August 21...0300 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY GONI (INENG)
Location: Over the central part of the Balintang Channel (near 19.4N 122.6E)
About: 137 km southeast of Basco, Batanes...or 109 km north-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 175 kph near the center...Gustiness: 215 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center and to the southwest): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 630 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds 100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 10 kph
Forecast Movement: North to North-Northeast @ 08 kph
Towards: Batanes Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY GONI (INENG) is expected to move north to north-northeastward slowly during the next 24 hours...and shall accelerate on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, GONI shall be passing close to the east of Batanes Group on Saturday (Aug 22).

TY GONI (INENG) will continue to gradually weaken throughout the outlook period. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 140 kph on Sunday morning (Aug 23).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Moves north to north-northeastward slowly...passing very close to the east of Batanes Islands...weakens further...about 99 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [8AM AUG 22: 20.8N 122.9E @ 165kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY MORNING: Continues to move north-northeastward with increasing forward speed across the Bashi Channel through East Taiwan Sea...weakens further...about 108 km southwest of Ishigakijima, Japan [8AM AUG 23: 23.7N 123.7E @ 140kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
MONDAY MORNING: Accelerates further as it turns northeastward over the East China Sea...weakens into a minimal Typhoon...about 141 km west-northwest of Okinawa, Japan [8AM AUG 24: 26.9N 126.5E @ 120kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri Aug 21, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 19.4º N Lat 122.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 116 km ENE of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 2: 217 km NNE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 3: 177 km SE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 4: 571 km NNE of Metro Manila
Distance 5: 522 km SSE of Hualien City, Taiwan

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph