Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update #004

Typhoon GONI (INENG) Update Number 004

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON GONI (INENG) UPDATE NUMBER 004
Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Wednesday 19 August 2015
Next Update: Thursday Early Morning, 20 August 2015

Typhoon GONI (INENG) still moving on a westerly direction closer to Extreme Northern Luzon with no change in strength...will directly affect Northern Cagayan and the Batanes Group of Islands on Friday and Saturday (Aug 21-22).

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of TY GONI (INENG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

None for the next 24 hours.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, August 19...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY GONI (INENG)
Location: Over the mid-southernmost part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.9N 127.7E)
About: 625 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes...or 580 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 175 kph near the center...Gustiness: 215 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center and to the north): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 560 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center
Past Movement: West @ 24 kph
Forecast Movement: West @ 15 kph
Towards: Batanes Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY GONI (INENG) is expected to slow down further as it continues to move in a westerly track during the next 24 hours...and shall gradually turn to the northwest to northward with a much decreasing speed through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, GONI will be traversing the southwesternmost part of the North Philippine Sea today through Thursday afternoon (Aug 20)...and shall move closer to Northern Cagayan and Batanes Group on Friday afternoon (Aug 21).

TY GONI (INENG) will regain its strength during the next 24 to 48 hours. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 195 kph on Thursday afternoon (Aug 20)...and maintaining its strength on Friday afternoon (Aug 21).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Regains strength as it moves west slowly closer to Extreme Northern Luzon...about 320 km southeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM AUG 20: 19.1N 124.7E @ 195kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Approaches Extreme Northern Luzon...starts to gradually turn NW to Northward...about 170 km southeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM AUG 21: 19.6N 123.3E @ 195kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Starts to slowly accelerate northward to north-northeastward away from the Batanes Area...loses strength...about 160 km northeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM AUG 22: 21.8N 122.9E @ 175kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed Aug 19, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 18.9º N Lat 127.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 635 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 650 km ENE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 3: 652 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 4: 653 km E of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 5: 850 km NE of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph