for Sunday, 02 October 2011 [7:25 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday Oct 02 2011):
(1) Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NALGAE (QUIEL); (2) Updated the Flash Satellite Movie of NALGAE...from 11 hours to 36 hours (see below)...that will be the last one as Nalgae moves out.
NALGAE's HRLY POSITION ESTIMATE: View Archive NALGAE (QUIEL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 115 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM NALGAE [QUIEL/22W/1119]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 013
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sun 02 October 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #021/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
NALGAE (QUIEL) weakens into a Tropical Storm...exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Enhanced Southwest Monsoon spreading across Palawan, Visayas, Southwestern & Southern Luzon - becoming intense along the western sections. Rains w/ thunderstorms & some squalls expected.
Residents and visitors along Hainan & Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of NALGAE (QUIEL).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun October 02 2011
Location of Center: 16.7º N Lat 115.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 418 km WNW of Cape Bolinao
Distance 2: 469 km West of San Fernando City
Distance 3: 476 km WNW of Dagupan City
Distance 4: 488 km WSW of Vigan City
Distance 5: 502 km WNW of Baguio City
Distance 6: 594 km NW of Metro Manila
Distance 7: 618 km SE of Hainan Is., China
Distance 8: 824 km ENE of Da Nang, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Hainan Island-Northern Vietnam Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 330 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 720 km (390 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Final T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM PhT Sun Oct 02
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
NALGAE (QUIEL) will move generally WNW...and this motion will persist throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of the storm will reach the southern coast of Hainan Wednesday.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. NALGAE is just a strong Tropical Storm on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Additional weakening is expected within the next 12 to 24 hours as it continues to move over a pool of cooler water...however, re-strengthening might happen before reaching the coast of Vietnam.
Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 205 kilometers (110 nautical miles). NALGAE is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 720 kilometers (390 nautical miles).
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly while moving WNW towards Southern Hainan [2PM OCT 03: 17.1N 113.6E @ 95kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Re-strengthens slightly as it approaches the Southern Coast of Hainan [2PM OCT 04: 17.6N 110.7E @ 100kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens again as it moves into the Gulf of Tonkin...approaching Northern Vietnam [2PM OCT 05: 18.2N 108.3E @ 95kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
WEAK & LOOSE EYE - over water (West Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).--> WEAK EYEWALL - over water (West Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea) Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 330 mm (high) along areas near the center of NALGAE (QUIEL). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic). COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Western Luzon with improving sea level conditions later in the day.. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY NALGAE (QUIEL)
PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2211.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
TYPHOON2000 CURRENT STORMTRACK:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS NALGAE (QUIEL)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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