Monday, October 03, 2011

TS NALGAE [QUIEL] - Update #015


for Monday, 03 October 2011 [12:30 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday Oct 02 2011):

(1) Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NALGAE (QUIEL); (2) Updated the Flash Satellite Movie of NALGAE...from 11 hours to 36 hours (see below)...that will be the last one as Nalgae moves out.



+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Mon 03 October 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #024/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm NALGAE (QUIEL) slows down as it maintains its WNW track towards Hainan Island.

Mild Southwest Monsoon spreading across Palawan, NW Visayas, Southwestern & Southern Luzon incl. Mindoro - becoming intense along the western sections. Rains w/ thunderstorms & some squalls expected.

Residents and visitors along Hainan & Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of NALGAE (QUIEL).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Mon October 03 2011
Location of Center: 17.7º N Lat 113.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 376 km SE of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 2: 448 km ESE of Sanya, Hainan
Distance 3: 503 km SSW of Hong Kong
Distance 4: 611 km ENE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 5: 710 km West of Vigan City
Distance 6: 732 km WSW of Laoag City
Distance 7: 862 km NW of Metro Manila
Distance 8: 906 km SE of Hanoi, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Hainan-Northern Vietnam Area
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 720 km (390 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM HKT Mon Oct 03


NALGAE (QUIEL) will continue moving generally WNW-ward within the next 36 to 48 hours...turning westward through the end of the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of the storm will landfall over the southern part of Hainan Tuesday evening.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. NALGAE is a strong Tropical Storm on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Additional weakening is expected within the next 24 to 48 hours as it moves over a pool of cooler water & land interaction with Hainan.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 260 kilometers (140 nautical miles). NALGAE is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 720 kilometers (390 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY MORNING:  Continues to weaken as it nears the Southern Hainan [8AM OCT 04: 18.2N 110.9E @ 75kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING:  Just barely a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves out of Southern the vicnity of Hainan's SW Coast [8AM OCT 05: 18.5N 108.5E @ 65kph].
THURSDAY MORNING:  Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) as it moves over the shores of Northern Vietnam [8AM OCT 06: 18.2N 106.7E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Hainan, Coastal Guangdong and the NE shores of Mid-Central Vietnam. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of NALGAE (QUIEL). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Hainan & Northern Vietnam. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Vietnam, Western Luzon & Southern China.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS NALGAE (QUIEL)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2211.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop



>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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