Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs! PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough. 
for Tuesday, 11 October 2011 [1:15 PM PhT]
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on RAMON!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday Oct 11 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on 23W (RAMON).
23W (RAMON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W [RAMON]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Tue 11 October 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #005/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression 23W (RAMON) turns west-northwestward while moving closer to Northeastern Mindanao...Rainbands spreading across Visayas, Mindanao & Bicol Region.
Residents and visitors along Northern Mindanao, Visayas & Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of 23W (RAMON).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Tue October 11 2011
Location of Center: 8.4º N Lat 128.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 264 km East of Hinatuan, Surigao DS
Distance 2: 384 km ESE of Surigao City
Distance 3: 356 km ESE of Butuan City
Distance 4: 507 km SE of Borongan City
Distance 5: 445 km SE of Guiuan, E.Samar
Distance 6: 511 km SE of Tacloban City
Distance 7: 534 km ESE of Ormoc City
Distance 8: 554 km ESE of Tagbiliran City
Distance 9: 567 km SE of Metro Cebu
Distance 10: 681 km SE of Bacolod City
Distance 11: 716 km SE of Iloilo City
Distance 12: 706 km SE of Masbate City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Surigao-Leyte Area
CPA [ETA] to Surigao DN: Wed Morning [7-9am PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 450 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 400 km (215 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM PhT Tue Oct 11
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
23W (RAMON) is expected to continue moving WNW to NW-ward during the next 2 to 3 days...with little change on its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of the depression will be approaching the NE Coast of Surigao Del Norte tonight...passing over or very near Surigao City Wednesday morning...and will traverse the major islands of the Visayas (Camotes Island-Northern Cebu-Northern Coast of Negros-Extreme Northern Panay) Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. 23W will be crossing Mindoro late Thursday afternoon or evening...and will be over the West Philippine Sea or about 200 km West of Metro Manila Friday morning.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 23W (RAMON) is a Tropical Depression on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale...and could become a Tropical Storm (TS) tonight.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Over or very near Surigao City/Dinagat Islands. [8AM OCT 12: 9.9N 125.5E @ 55kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Off the Coast of Aklan, near Boracay...still at TD strength [8AM OCT 13: 12.0N 122.2E @ 55kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Strengthens into a Tropical Storm (TS) while over the West Philippine Sea [8AM OCT 14: 14.6N 119.2E @ 75kph].
23W's (RAMON's) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
SURIGAO DEL NORTE: Passing very near or over Surigao City [ETA: 7:00-9:00 AM Local Time, Wednesday].
NORTHERN CEBU: Passing more or less 60 km north of Metro Cebu [ETA: 6:00-8:00 PM Wednesday].
BACOLOD-ILOILO AREA: Passing more or less 80 km north of Bacolod & Iloilo Cities [ETA: 9:00-11:00 PM Wednesday].
CAPIZ: Passing very near or over Roxas City [ETA: 1:00-3:00 AM Thursday].
AKLAN: Passing more or less 30 km northeast of Boracay[ETA: 7:00-10:00 AM Thursday].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have anaverage error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading acrossVisayas, Mindanao & Bicol Region. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 450 mm (high) along areas near the center of 23W (RAMON). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
In Effect: EASTERN SAMAR, WESTERN SAMAR, LEYTE PROVINCES, BOHOL, BILIRAN & CAMOTES ISLANDS, SURIGAO DEL NORTE, SURIGAO DEL SUR, SIARGAO ISLAND, AGUSAN DEL NORTE, CAMIGUIN ISLAND, & DINAGAT GROUP OF ISLANDS.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
External Links for TD 23W (RAMON)
PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2311.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
TYPHOON2000 LATEST STORMTRACK:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 23W (RAMON)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
Copyright © 2011 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved
No comments:
Post a Comment