for Wednesday, 12 October 2011 [1:25 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday Oct 11 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on BANYAN (RAMON).
BANYAN (RAMON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM BANYAN [RAMON/23W/1120]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 006
12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Wed 12 October 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #007/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm BANYAN (RAMON) trying to consolidate as it barrels down the east coast of Surigao Del Norte & Siargao Island.
Residents and visitors along Northern Mindanao, Visayas & Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of BANYAN (RAMON).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 AM PhT Wed October 12 2011
Location of Center: 9.6º N Lat 126.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 101 km ESE of Surigao City
Distance 2: 134 km North of Hinatuan, Surigao DS
Distance 3: 126 km NE of Butuan City
Distance 4: 248 km SSE of Borongan City
Distance 5: 183 km SSE of Guiuan, E.Samar
Distance 6: 235 km SE of Tacloban City
Distance 7: 251 km SSE of Ormoc City
Distance 8: 285 km East of Tagbilaran City
Distance 9: 285 km ESE of Metro Cebu
Distance 10: 400 km ESE of Bacolod City
Distance 11: 433 km ESE of Iloilo City
Distance 12: 515 km SE of Masbate City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Surigao-Leyte Area
CPA [ETA] to Surigao DN: This Morning [4-6am PhT]
6-12hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 310 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12 AM PhT Wed Oct 12
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
BANYAN (RAMON) is expected to move WNW to NW-ward during the next 2 to 3 days...with a decrease on its forward speed later in the forecast. On the forecast track, the core of the storm will be approaching the NE Coast of Surigao Del Norte tonight...passing over or very near Surigao City Wednesday morning...and will traverse the major islands of the Visayas (Camotes Island-Cebu-Northern Negros-Panay) this morning through Thursday morning. BANYAN will pass over the Southern Coast of Mindoro Thursday morning...and will be over the West Philippine Sea on Friday.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. BANYAN (RAMON) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale...and should still intensify before it interacts with the Visayan Islands today.
Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 km/hr) extend outward up to 30 kilometers (15 nautical miles). BANYAN (RAMON) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers (360 nautical miles).
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
WEDNESDAY EVENING: Starts to cross Eastern Panay...downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD). [8PM OCT 12: 11.0N 123.0E @ 55kph].
THURSDAY EVENING: Regains TS strength...enters the West Philippine Sea [8PM OCT 13: 13.4N 119.2E @ 65kph].
FRIDAY EVENING: Strengthens further while moving WNW'ly across the West Philippine Sea [8PM OCT 14: 15.6N 116.7E @ 75kph].
**Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): There is a possibility that BANYAN (RAMON) will move more northwesterly and pass over Southern Leyte instead...cutting across or just south of Masbate...and crossing Mindoro. This scenario may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge northeast of the storm will weaken or retreat.
BANYAN's (RAMON's) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
SURIGAO DEL NORTE: Passing very near or over Surigao City [ETA: 4:00-6:00 AM Local Time, Wednesday].
CEBU: Passing more or less 25 km north of Metro Cebu [ETA: 2:00-4:00 PM Wednesday].
BACOLOD-ILOILO AREA: Passing more or less 80 km north of Bacolod & Iloilo Cities [ETA: 7:00 to 9:00 PM Wednesday].
CAPIZ: Passing more or less 40 km south of Roxas City [ETA: 8:00-10:00 PM Wednesday].
AKLAN: Passing more or less 40 km south of Boracay [ETA: 1:00-3:00 AM Thursday].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Surigao Provinces, Siargao & Dinagat Islands. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands. DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across rest of Visayas, Mindanao & Bicol Region. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 151 to 310 mm (high) along areas near the center of BANYAN (RAMON). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) 
In Effect: WESTERN & EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE, BILIRAN IS., CAMOTES IS., BOHOL, SIARGAO IS., SURIGAO PROVINCESS, DINAGAT & CAMIGUIN IS., & AGUSAN DEL NORTE
The above areas will experience stormy weather tonight until tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: MARINDUQUE, ORIENTAL MINDORO, ROMBLON, CAMARINES SUR, SOUTHERN QUEZON, CATANDUANES, ALBAY, BURIAS IS., SORSOGON, MASBATE, TICAO, NORTHERN SAMAR, PANAY, GUIMARAS, NEGROS, CEBU, SIQUIJOR IS., MISAMIS ORIENTAL, & AGUSAN DEL SUR.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight and tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
External Links for TS BANYAN (RAMON)
PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2311.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
TYPHOON2000 LATEST STORMTRACK:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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