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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday Oct 11 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on BANYAN (RAMON).
BANYAN (RAMON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM BANYAN [RAMON/23W/1120]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wed 12 October 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #008/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm BANYAN (RAMON) has rapidly accelerated & was relocated farther to the West...now in the vicinity of Cebu Island...Wide swath of intense rainbands affecting Southern Philippines including Bicol Region.
Residents and visitors along Northern Mindanao, Visayas & Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of BANYAN (RAMON).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed October 12 2011
Location of Center: 10.2º N Lat 123.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 45 km WSW of Metro Cebu
Distance 2: 79 km ESE of Bacolod City
Distance 3: 108 km ESE of Guimaras Island
Distance 4: 123 km ESE of Iloilo City
Distance 5: 65 km NNW of Tagbilaran City
Distance 6: 102 km North of Dumaguete City
Distance 7: 223 km WNW of Surigao City
Distance 8: 150 km SW of Ormoc City
Distance 9: 234 km South of Masbate City
Distance 10: 257 km SE of Boracay
Distance 11: 284 km ESE of Cuyo Island
Distance 12: 379 km SSE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 31 kph (17 kts)
Towards: Negros-Southern Panay Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 510 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM PhT Wed Oct 12
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
BANYAN (RAMON) is expected to move WNW to NW-ward during the next 2 to 3 days...with a decrease on its forward speed later in the forecast. On the forecast track, the core of the storm will cross Negros Island & the Southern part of Panay Island this morning...passing just to the south of Bacolod, Guimaras and Iloilo...and will move into Sulu Sea this afternoon. BANYAN will pass very close to Cuyo Island early tonight...and to the south of Coron, Palawan around midnight. This large storm will be over the West Philippine Sea by Thursday afternoon on its way to Southern China.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. BANYAN (RAMON) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale...and should intensify as it moves into West Philippine Sea on Thursday.
Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 km/hr) extend outward up to 30 kilometers (15 nautical miles). BANYAN (RAMON) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers (360 nautical miles).
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Passing to the South of Coron, Palawan...into the West Philippine Sea. [2AM OCT 13: 12.0N 119.3E @ 65kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Gaining more strength as it continues to move across the West Philippine Sea [2AM OCT 14: 14.4N 116.2E @ 85kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...intensifying further over the South China Sea [2AM OCT 15: 16.3N 113.6E @ 95kph].
BANYAN's (RAMON's) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
BACOLOD-ILOILO AREA: Passing over or very close to Bacolod & Iloilo Cities [ETA: 10:00 AM to 12:00 PM Today].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Panay, Negros, Cebu & Bohol. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across rest of Visayas, Central & Western Mindanao, Mindoro, Palawan & Bicol Region. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 510 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of BANYAN (RAMON). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: WESTERN & EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE, BILIRAN IS., CAMOTES IS., NORTHERN CEBU, BOHOL, SIARGAO IS., SURIGAO PROVINCESS, DINAGAT & CAMIGUIN IS., & AGUSAN DEL NORTE
The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: MARINDUQUE, MINDORO, ROMBLON, CAMARINES SUR, SOUTHERN QUEZON, CATANDUANES, ALBAY, BURIAS IS., SORSOGON, MASBATE, TICAO, NORTHERN SAMAR, PANAY, GUIMARAS, NEGROS, CEBU, SIQUIJOR IS., MISAMIS ORIENTAL, & AGUSAN DEL SUR.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
External Links for TS BANYAN (RAMON)
PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2311.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
TYPHOON2000 LATEST STORMTRACK:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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