for Wednesday, 05 October 2011 [12:30 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday Oct 02 2011):
(1) Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NALGAE (QUIEL); (2) Updated the Flash Satellite Movie of NALGAE...from 11 hours to 36 hours (see below)...that will be the last one as Nalgae moves out.
NALGAE's HRLY POSITION ESTIMATE: View Archive NALGAE (QUIEL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NALGAE [QUIEL/22W/1119]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 021
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Wed 05 October 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #032/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression NALGAE (QUIEL) drifting southwestward slowly...closer to the coast of Northern Vietnam...landfall expected tonight.
Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA) remains weak over the Philippine Sea - with almost no raincloud convection near its center...currently located near 10.4 N Lat 131.7 E Lon...about 700 km ESE of Borongan City, Samar...with 1-min. sustained winds of 30 kph...moving westward slowly. This system will be closely observed for further development. The 24-hr TC Formation Potential remains at 20% [Low].
Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of NALGAE (QUIEL).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue October 04 2011
Location of Center: 18.3º N Lat 107.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 146 km SW of Dongfang, Hainan
Distance 2: 200 km North of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 3: 201 km West of Sanya, Hainan
Distance 4: 354 km SSE of Hanoi, Vietnam
Distance 5: 529 km ENE of Vientiane, Laos
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: SW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Northern Vietnam
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 100 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 5-15 mm/hr (Light-Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) [Avg/Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM HKT Wed Oct 05
36-HOUR FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
NALGAE (QUIEL) is expected to continue tracking SW-ward over the next 36 hours. On the forecast track, the core of the depression will make its final landfall over Northern Vietnam early Thursday...and dissipate along Laos Thursday evening.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. NALGAE is a Tropical Depression on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued weakening is expected within the next 12 to 24 hours...and NALGAE will dissipate after it makes landfall.
The following is the summary of the 36-hour forecast outlook on this system:
WEDNESDAY EVENING: Weakening as it approaches the shoreline of Northern Vietnam. [8PM OCT 05: 18.0N 106.9E @ 45kph].
THURSDAY EVENING: Dissipates over land (Laos) [8PM OCT 06: 17.0N 105.6E @ 20kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
DECAYING RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Northern & Central Vietnam, the Gulf of Tonkin, & the SW Coast of Guangdong Province. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 51 to 100 mm (medium to high) along areas near the center of NALGAE (QUIEL). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD NALGAE (QUIEL)
PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2211.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1.5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD NALGAE (QUIEL)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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