Thursday, October 13, 2011

TD BANYAN [RAMON] - Update #011


for Thursday, 13 October 2011 [12:59 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday Oct 11 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on BANYAN (RAMON).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Thu 13 October 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #013/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression BANYAN (RAMON) relocated once again while over the West Philippine Sea. Its Low-Level Circulation Center (LLCC) is difficult to locate as the system remains disorganized. Displaced rainbands still affecting portions of Southern & Central Luzon, Calamian Group of Islands, Mindoro, & Northern Palawan.

Residents and visitors along Hainan & Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of BANYAN (RAMON).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Thu October 13 2011
Location of Center: 12.9º N Lat 117.5º E Lon [Relocated]
Distance 1: 310 km WNW of Coron Is.
Distance 2: 374 km WSW of Puerto Galera
Distance 3: 384 km WNW of San Jose, Occ. Mindoro
Distance 4: 379 km NNW of Puerto Princesa
Distance 5: 429 km WSW of Laiya, Batangas
Distance 6: 432 km SW of Metro Manila
Distance 7: 491 km WNW of Boracay
Distance 8: 1004 km SE of Hainan Island
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Towards: West Philippine Sea
6-12hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 25 mm (Low)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM PhT Thu Oct 13


BANYAN (RAMON) is expected to move NW-ward during the next 2 days...with a westward turn on day 3. A decrease on its forward speed is likely during the outlook period. On the forecast track, the core of the depression will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Friday...and will turn more westward as it approaches the southern coast of Hainan on Sunday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. BANYAN (RAMON) is a weak Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale...and should re-intensify back to Tropical Storm status on Saturday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY MORNING:  Intensified slightly as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [8AM OCT 14: 14.7N 115.2E @ 55kph].
SATURDAY MORNING:  Upgraded to Tropical Storm (TS) status...turns WNW towards the Southern Coast of Hainan [8AM OCT 15: 16.9N 112.8E @ 75kph].
SUNDAY MORNING:  Slightly intensifies while passing to the south of Hainan...turns more westward [8AM OCT 16: 17.5N 110.4E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

DISPLACED RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Calamian Group of Islands, Mindoro & portions of Central & Southern Luzon incl. Metro Manila. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
6-12HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 15 mm (low rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 16 to 25 mm (low) along areas near the center of BANYAN (RAMON). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today...with improving weather conditions later tonight or tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

External Links for TD BANYAN (RAMON)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2311.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop





>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TD BANYAN (RAMON)...go visit our website @:


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