for Wednesday, 05 October 2011 [7:30 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday Oct 02 2011):
(1) Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NALGAE (QUIEL); (2) Updated the Flash Satellite Movie of NALGAE...from 11 hours to 36 hours (see below)...that will be the last one as Nalgae moves out.
NALGAE's HRLY POSITION ESTIMATE: View Archive NALGAE (QUIEL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NALGAE [QUIEL/22W/1119]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 020
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Wed 05 October 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #031/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
NALGAE (QUIEL) downgraded to a Tropical Depression...likely to dissipate upon reaching the coast of Northern Vietnam.
Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA) has become disorganized while over the Philippine Sea...located near 10.4 N Lat 132.4 E Lon...about 775 km ESE of Borongan City, Samar...with 1-min. sustained winds of 35 kph...barely moving. This system will be closely observed for further development. The 24-hr TC Formation Potential remains at 20% [Low].
Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of NALGAE (QUIEL).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue October 04 2011
Location of Center: 18.5º N Lat 108.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 92 km SW of Dongfang, Hainan
Distance 2: 151 km WNW of Sanya, Hainan
Distance 3: 193 km WSW of Danzhou, Hainan
Distance 4: 264 km WSW of Dongfang, Hainan
Distance 5: 291 km WSW of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 6: 229 km NNE of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 7: 267 km North of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 8: 368 km SE of Hanoi, Vietnam
Distance 9: 393 km SW of Zhanjiang, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: WSW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Northern Vietnam
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 100 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 5-15 mm/hr (Light-Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) [Avg/Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM HKT Wed Oct 05
36-HOUR FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
NALGAE (QUIEL) is expected to continue tracking WSW-ward over the next 36 hours. On the forecast track, the core of the depression will move will make its final landfall over Northern Vietnam early Thursday...and dissipate along Laos Thursday afternoon.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. NALGAE is a Tropical Depression on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued weakening is expected within the next 12 to 48 hours...and NALGAE could dissipate on or before landfall.
The following is the summary of the 36-hour forecast outlook on this system:
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Moving WSW across the Gulf of Tonkin. [2PM OCT 05: 18.4N 107.2E @ 55kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipates over Laos [2PM OCT 06: 17.3N 105.4E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
DECAYING RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Northern & Central Vietnam, the Gulf of Tonkin, & the SW Coast of Guangdong Province. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 51 to 100 mm (medium to high) along areas near the center of NALGAE (QUIEL). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS NALGAE (QUIEL)
PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2211.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1.5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS NALGAE (QUIEL)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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