Friday, October 14, 2011

TD BANYAN [RAMON] - Update #012


for Thursday, 13 October 2011 [6:00 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday Oct 11 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on BANYAN (RAMON).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thu 13 October 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #014/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression BANYAN (RAMON) moving northwestward while over the West Philippine Sea...becoming better organized. All PAGASA Storm Warning Signals are now lowered...however, displaced rainbands of the depression are still affecting Metro Manila, portions of Southern & Central Luzon, Calamian Group of Islands, Mindoro, & Northern Palawan.

Residents and visitors along Hainan & Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of BANYAN (RAMON).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu October 13 2011
Location of Center: 14.4º N Lat 116.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 368 km WSW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 390 km WSW of Subic Bay/Olongapo City
Distance 3: 463 km NW of Coron Is.
Distance 4: 464 km WNW of Puerto Galera
Distance 5: 474 km West of Metro Manila
Distance 6: 824 km SE of Hainan Island
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: West Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 210 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM PhT Thu Oct 13


BANYAN (RAMON) is expected to move NW-ward during the next 2 days...with a westward turn on day 3. A decrease on its forward speed is likely during the outlook period. On the forecast track, the core of the depression will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Friday...and will turn more westward as it passes to the south of Hainan on Sunday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. BANYAN (RAMON) is a weak Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale...and should re-intensify back to Tropical Storm status on Friday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY AFTERNOON:  Regains Tropical Storm status as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [2PM OCT 14: 15.6N 114.4E @ 65kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON:  Intensifying slightly as it turns WNW towards the South of Hainan [2PM OCT 15: 17.4N 112.0E @ 75kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON:  Slightly intensifies while passing to the south of Hainan...turns more westward [2PM OCT 16: 17.5N 109.4E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

DISPLACED RAINBANDS - still affecting & spreading across the Calamian Group of Islands, Mindoro & portions of Central & Southern Luzon incl. Metro Manila. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 85 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 86 to 210 mm (High) along areas near the center of BANYAN (RAMON). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TD BANYAN (RAMON)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2311.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop





>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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