Sunday, October 02, 2011

Typhoon NALGAE [QUIEL] - Update #011


for Sunday, 02 October 2011 [7:15 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday Oct 02 2011):

(1) Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NALGAE (QUIEL); (2) Updated the Flash Satellite Movie of NALGAE...from 11 hours to 36 hours (see below)...that will be the last one as Nalgae moves out.



+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sun 02 October 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #019/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon NALGAE (QUIEL) has weakened to a Category 1 cyclone as it slows down over the West Philippine Sea...effects to Luzon diminishing...improving weather expected.

Meanwhile, LPA 90W remains stationary over the Philippine Sea...about 784 km East of Borongan, Eastern Samar (11.8N 132.6E), with 1-min sustained winds of 35 kph. This system will be closely observed for possible development in the coming days.

Residents and visitors along Hainan & Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of NALGAE (QUIEL).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun October 02 2011
Location of Center: 16.3º N Lat 117.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 203 km West of Cape Bolinao
Distance 2: 251 km NW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 3: 258 km WSW of San Fernando City
Distance 4: 258 km WNW of Dagupan City
Distance 5: 288 km West of Baguio City
Distance 6: 303 km SW of Vigan City
Distance 7: 306 km NW of Subic Bay/Olongapo City
Distance 8: 356 km SW of Laoag City
Distance 9: 392 km NW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: West Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 250 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 720 km (390 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM PhT Sun Oct 02


NALGAE (QUIEL) will begin turning slightly toward the WNW...and this general movement will persist throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of the typhoon will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later today or early Sunday...and will approach the coastal areas of Northern Vietnam & Southern Hainan on Wednesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 150 km/hr (80 knots) with higher gusts. NALGAE is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale...and will remain with this intensity throughout the period.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 35 kilometers (20 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers (120 nautical miles). NALGAE is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 720 kilometers (390 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY EARLY MORNING:  Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [2AM OCT 03: 16.6N 114.2E @ 150kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Approaching the southeastern entrance of the Gulf of between Northern Vietnam & Hainan Island..weakens slightly [2AM OCT 04: 17.0N 110.9E @ 140kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Just barely a Typhoon...passing near the coast of North-Central Vietnam...about 113 km NNE of Hue, Vietnam [2AM OCT 05: 17.4N 108.1E @ 120kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

WEAK & LOOSE EYE - over water (West Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).-->
WEAK EYEWALL - over water (West Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - its easternmost bands are affecting & spreading across Western Luzon. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 250 mm (high) along areas near the center of NALGAE (QUIEL). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Western Luzon with improving sea level conditions later in the day.. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Luzon.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

External Links for TY NALGAE (QUIEL)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2211.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop




>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TY NALGAE (QUIEL)...go visit our website @:


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