for Saturday, 01 October 2011 [7:00 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Oct 01 2011):
Now issuing hourly or 3-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NALGAE (QUIEL).
NALGAE's HRLY POSITION ESTIMATE: Click Here To View NALGAE (QUIEL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON NALGAE [QUIEL/22W/1119]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sat 01 October 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #015/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The core of Typhoon NALGAE (QUIEL) now approaching the shores of Isabela & Northern Aurora Area. Based on its sudden WSW motion, NALGAE's landfall now expected just north of the Isabela-Aurora Border in approximately 2-3 hours.
Projected Landfall Area (PLA): Isabela...just south of Palanan Bay between 8-9 AM this morning.
Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of NALGAE (QUIEL).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sat October 01 2011
Location of Eye: 16.8º N Lat 123.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 96 km East of Isabela's Shoreline
Distance 2: 171 km East of Cauayan City
Distance 3: 144 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 166 km ESE of Ilagan, Isabela
Distance 5: 192 km ESE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 6: 291 km ENE of Baguio City
Distance 7: 253 km SE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 8: 326 km SE of Laoag City
Distance 9: 321 km ESE of Vigan City
Distance 10: 213 km NE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 11: 340 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 215 kph (115 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 260 kph (140 kts)
Present Movement: WSW @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Towards: Isabela-Northern Aurora
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 210 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 630 km (340 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM PhT Sat Oct 01
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
NALGAE (QUIEL) will continue to move generally west to west-southwestward (known in meteorology as a "Straight-Runner") throughout the forecast period...with a decrease in its forward speed. On the forecast track, the small core of the typhoon will make landfall just north of the Isabela-Aurora Border this morning...and cross Northern Luzon through the afternoon until early evening. NALGAE will move out of Northern Luzon via Ilocos Sur or La Union tonight...and will be over the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) Sunday morning. By early Monday, NALGAE will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), on its way to Hainan Island, Southern China.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 215 km/hr (115 knots) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely before making landfall over Isabela. NALGAE is a Category 4 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.
Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers (120 nautical miles). NALGAE is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 610 kilometers (330 nautical miles).
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to a Category 1 Typhoon as it moves across the West Philippine Sea, farther away from Luzon [2AM OCT 02: 17.4N 116.4E @ 140kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves toward Hainan Island [2AM OCT 03: 17.6N 114.6E @ 140kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Approaching the Southern Coast of Hainan Island...weakens slightly [2AM OCT 04: 18.0N 111.2E @ 130kph].
NALGAE's (QUIEL) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
ISABELA: Passing just south of Palanan Bay or near the Aurora-Isabela Border...[ETA: 8:00-10:00 AM Local Time, Today].
CAUAYAN CITY: Passing near/over Isabela's City [ETA: 11:00 AM-1:00 PM Today].
LA UNION: Passing near/over San Fernando City [ETA: 5:00-7:00 PM Today].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NALGAE's (QUIEL's) compact but intense circulation continues to display a small 9-11-km eye emerging on satellite imageries awhile ago. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
SMALL EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...expected to landfall off the shores of Isabela between 8-10 AM today. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - affecting and moving into the shores of Northern Aurora-Isabela this morning. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Northern Aurora & Isabela. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Northern & Central Luzon incl. Metro Manila, Southern Luzon, & Camarines Norte. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 210 mm (high) along areas near the center of NALGAE (QUIEL). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic). COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Eastern Luzon particularly Isabela & Aurora today. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA) has tracked NNW but remains weak. Its developing center was located about 1156 km ESE of Surigao City (10.5N 135.5E)...maximum sustained winds of 35 kph. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential remains at MEDIUM (40%).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3) 
Now In Effect: ISABELA, NORTHERN AURORA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, BENGUET, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION, & PANGASINAN.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
Now In Effect: CAGAYAN, APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE, ABRA, KALINGA, REST OF AURORA, NUEVA ECIJA, TARLAC, PAMPANGA, ZAMBALES, BULACAN, NORTHERN QUEZON, & POLILLO ISLAND.
The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and 100-185 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
Now In Effect: METRO MANILA, REST OF QUEZON, CAMARINES NORTE, RIZAL, BATAAN, CAVITE, LAGUNA, BATANGAS, LUBANG ISLAND, BABUYAN & CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
External Links for TY NALGAE (QUIEL)
PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2211.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
TYPHOON2000 CURRENT STORMTRACK:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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> http://www.typhoon2000.com
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