Monday, October 10, 2011

TD 23W [RAMON] - Update #001


for Monday, 10 October 2011 [12:57 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday Oct 10 2011):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on 23W (RAMON).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr


12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Mon 10 October 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #001/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The small but strong disturbance (LPA) west of Palau Islands, inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) has strengthened into Tropical Depression 23W (RAMON)...tracking westward during the past 3 hours...may threaten to Northeastern Mindanao & Visayas within 2-3 days.

Residents and visitors along Northern Mindanao, Visayas & Southern Bicol should closely monitor the progress of 23W (RAMON).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Mon October 10 2011
Location of Center: 7.5º N Lat 131.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 343 km WNW of Koror, Palau
Distance 2: 570 km ESE of Hinatuan, Surigao D.Sur
Distance 3: 641 km ENE of Metro Davao
Distance 4: 668 km ESE of Butuan City
Distance 5: 697 km SE of Surigao City
Distance 6: 868 km ESE of Tagbilaran City
Distance 7: 881 km SE of Metro Cebu
Distance 8: 995 km SE of Bacolod City
Distance 9: 1040 km SE of Iloilo City
Distance 10: 800 km SE of Borongan City
Distance 11: 841 km SE of Ormoc City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: Surigao-Leyte Area
CPA [ETA] to Surigao DN: Wed Morning [5-8am PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 450 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 300 km (160 nm) [Small]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM PhT Mon Oct 10


23W (RAMON) is expected to move WNW-ward during the next 2 to 3 days...with little change on its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of the depression will be approaching the coast of Surigao Provinces Tuesday evening...passing over or very near Surigao City just after sunrise on Wednesday...and traversing the major islands of the Visayas (Bohol-Cebu-Northern Negros-Panay) Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. 23W (RAMON) is a weak Tropical Depression on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale...and could become a Tropical Storm (TS) by Tuesday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY MORNING:  Attains Tropical Storm (TS) strength...moving WNW closer to the east coast of Surigao Provinces. [8AM OCT 11: 8.4N 128.6E @ 65kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING:  Passing near or over Surigao City...remains a minimal TS [8AM OCT 12: 9.8N 125.3E @ 65kph].
THURSDAY MORNING:  Downgraded to a Tropical Depression after crossing the major islands of the Visayas...just along the west coast of Panay Island [8AM OCT 13: 11.3N 121.9E @ 55kph].


SURIGAO DEL NORTE:  Passing very near or over Surigao City [ETA: 5:00-8:00 AM Local Time, Wednesday].
CEBU:  Passing very near or over Metro Cebu [ETA: 6:00-8:00 PM Wednesday].
BACOLOD-ILOILO AREA:  Passing very near or over these cities [ETA: 12:00-3:00 AM Thursday].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across South Philippine Sea (west of Palau Islands & east of Eastern Mindanao). Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 450 mm (moderate) along areas near the center of 23W (RAMON). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TD 23W (RAMON)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2311.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop




>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TD 23W (RAMON)...go visit our website @:


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