for Tuesday, 04 October 2011 [7:15 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday Oct 02 2011):
(1) Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NALGAE (QUIEL); (2) Updated the Flash Satellite Movie of NALGAE...from 11 hours to 36 hours (see below)...that will be the last one as Nalgae moves out.
NALGAE's HRLY POSITION ESTIMATE: View Archive NALGAE (QUIEL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM NALGAE [QUIEL/22W/1119]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 017
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Tue 04 October 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #027/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm NALGAE (QUIEL) has started to decay while nearing the Southern Coast of Hainan.
Residents and visitors along Hainan & Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of NALGAE (QUIEL).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue October 04 2011
Location of Center: 17.9º N Lat 111.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 207 km SE of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 2: 256 km ESE of Sanya, Hainan
Distance 3: 297 km SSE of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 4: 363 km ESE of Dongfang, Hainan
Distance 5: 405 km SSE of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 6: 441 km NE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 7: 482 km ENE of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 8: 545 km SSW of Hong Kong
Distance 9: 726 km SE of Hanoi, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Southern Hainan-Northern Vietnam
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 220 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 720 km (390 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM HKT Tue Oct 04
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
NALGAE (QUIEL) will continue moving generally westward within the next 36 to 48 hours...turning WSW-ward through the end of the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of the storm will pass very near the southern coast of Hainan this afternoon through the evening.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. NALGAE is a Tropical Storm on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued weakening is expected within the next 24 to 48 hours as it starts interacting with Hainan.
Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 240 kilometers (130 nautical miles). NALGAE is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 720 kilometers (390 nautical miles).
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Just barely a Tropical Storm (TS) while passing very near the southern shores of Hainan [2AM OCT 05: 18.1N 109.2E @ 65kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) as it prepares to make landfall over Northern Vietnam [2AM OCT 06: 17.9N 107.0E @ 55kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns WSW to SW-ward across land...dissipates along the Laos-Thailand Border [2AM OCT 08: 16.9N 104.9E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Hainan Island & the coastal areas of Northern Vietnam. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Northern & Central Vietnam, the Gulf of Tonkin, & the SW Coast of Guangdong Province. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 220 mm (high) along areas near the center of NALGAE (QUIEL). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic). COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Hainan & Northern Vietnam. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Vietnam, Western Luzon & Southern China. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS NALGAE (QUIEL)
PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2211.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS NALGAE (QUIEL)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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