for Saturday, 01 October 2011 [1:15 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Oct 01 2011):
Now issuing hourly or 3-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NALGAE (QUIEL).
NALGAE's HRLY POSITION ESTIMATE: Click Here To View NALGAE (QUIEL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 240 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON NALGAE [QUIEL/22W/1119]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sat 01 October 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #016/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
NALGAE (QUIEL) losing strength as it traverses Northern Luzon...now moving across Ifugao...will pass north of Baguio City before Sunset. Typhoon Conditions still being felt across the Cordilleras.
Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of NALGAE (QUIEL).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sat October 01 2011
Location of Eye: 16.7º N Lat 121.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 11 km WNW of Santiago, Isabela
Distance 2: 40 km NNE of Bayombong, Nueva Vizcaya
Distance 3: 39 km SW of Ilagan, Isabela
Distance 4: 70 km SSW of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 92 km ENE of Baguio City
Distance 6: 46 km SE of Banaue Rice Terraces
Distance 7: 118 km ENE of San Fernando City
Distance 8: 146 km SE of Vigan City
Distance 9: 187 km SSE of Laoag City
Distance 10: 141 km NE of Dagupan City
Distance 11: 237 km North of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 195 kph (105 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 240 kph (130 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: Ifugao-Benguet Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 350 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 630 km (340 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM PhT Sat Oct 01
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
NALGAE (QUIEL) will continue moving westward (known in meteorology as a "Straight-Runner") during the next 24 hours...and a slight turn to the WNW w/ a decrease on its forward speed throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, the small core of the typhoon will exit Northern Luzon via La Union around Sunset...and emerge over the West Philippine Sea tonight. NALGAE will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), on its way to Hainan Island, Sunday afternoon or evening...then approaching the SE Coast of Hainan Island by Tuesday.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 195 km/hr (105 knots) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is likely while crossing land. NALGAE is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.
Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 260 kilometers (140 nautical miles). NALGAE is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 630 kilometers (340 nautical miles).
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens to a Category 1 Typhoon as it moves across the West Philippine Sea, farther away from Luzon [8AM OCT 02: 16.9N 117.8E @ 160kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves toward Hainan Island [8AM OCT 03: 17.3N 114.0E @ 130kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Approaching the Southeastern Coast of Hainan Island...just barely a Typhoon [8AM OCT 04: 17.6N 110.9E @ 120kph].
NALGAE's (QUIEL) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
BENGUET: Passing north of Baguio City [ETA: 3:00-5:00 PM Today].
LA UNION: Passing north of San Fernando City [ETA: 5:00-7:00 PM Tonight].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NALGAE's (QUIEL's) compact but intense circulation continues to display a small 9-11-km eye emerging on satellite imageries awhile ago. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
DECAYING EYEWALL - affecting and moving into Ifugao, Northern Nueva Vizcaya & later off Benguet. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Central portions of Northern Luzon. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Northern & Central Luzon incl. Metro Manila, Southern Luzon, & Camarines Norte. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 350 mm (high) along areas near the center of NALGAE (QUIEL). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic). COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Western Luzon particularly along La Union, Pangasinan & Ilocos Sur this afternoon through the evening.. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA) has tracked NNW but remains weak. Its developing center was located about 1156 km ESE of Surigao City (10.5N 135.5E)...maximum sustained winds of 35 kph. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential remains at MEDIUM (40%).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3) 
In Effect: ISABELA, NORTHERN AURORA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, BENGUET, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION, & PANGASINAN.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: CAGAYAN, APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE, ABRA, KALINGA, REST OF AURORA, NUEVA ECIJA, TARLAC, PAMPANGA, ZAMBALES, BULACAN, NORTHERN QUEZON, & POLILLO ISLAND.
The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and 100-185 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: METRO MANILA, REST OF QUEZON, CAMARINES NORTE, RIZAL, BATAAN, CAVITE, LAGUNA, BATANGAS, LUBANG ISLAND, BABUYAN & CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
External Links for TY NALGAE (QUIEL)
PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2211.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
TYPHOON2000 CURRENT STORMTRACK:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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