for Saturday, 01 October 2011 [1:15 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Oct 01 2011):
Now issuing 3-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NALGAE (QUIEL).
NALGAE (QUIEL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON NALGAE [QUIEL/22W/1119]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Sat 01 October 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #014/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The small but tenacious NALGAE (QUIEL) rapidly deepens to a Category 4 Typhoon, with winds of 215-km/hr...tracking WSW during the past 3 hours. Based on its sudden southward motion, NALGAE's landfall now expected along Isabela in approximately 10 hours.
Projected Landfall Area (PLA): Isabela...off Divilacan or Palanan Bay between 9-11 AM this morning.
Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of NALGAE (QUIEL).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 AM PhT Sat October 01 2011
Location of Eye: 17.3º N Lat 124.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 222 km ENE of Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 2: 234 km East of Divilacan, Isabela
Distance 3: 283 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 287 km East of Ilagan, Isabela
Distance 5: 300 km ESE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 6: 301 km ENE of Cauayan City
Distance 7: 321 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 8: 425 km ESE of Laoag City
Distance 9: 436 km East of Vigan City
Distance 10: 471 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 215 kph (115 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 260 kph (140 kts)
Present Movement: WSW @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Towards: Isabela
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 220 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 630 km (340 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 26 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12 AM PhT Sat Oct 01
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
NALGAE (QUIEL) will continue to move generally westward (known in meteorology as a "Straight-Runner") throughout the forecast period...with a decrease in its forward speed. On the forecast track, the small core of the typhoon will make landfall along Isabela before noon Saturday...and cross Northern Luzon in the afternoon through the early evening. NALGAE will move out of Northern Luzon via Ilocos Sur Sunday evening...and will be over the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) Sunday morning. By early Monday, NALGAE will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), on its way to Hainan Island, Southern China.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have dramatically increased to near 215 km/hr (115 knots) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is still forecast during the next 12 hours, before making landfall over Northern Luzon. NALGAE is now a Category 4 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.
Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers (120 nautical miles). NALGAE is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 610 kilometers (330 nautical miles).
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
SATURDAY EVENING: Just along the coast of Ilocos Sur...weakens to a Category 2 Typhoon...34 km WSW of Vigan City [8PM OCT 01: 17.5N 120.1E @ 160kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens to Category 1 as it moves across the West Philippine Sea (aka. South China Sea), leaving the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...477 km West of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [8PM OCT 02: 17.6N 115.9E @ 140kph].
MONDAY EVENING: Weakens slightly as it approaches Hainan Island [8PM OCT 03: 17.9N 112.5E @ 130kph].
NALGAE's (QUIEL) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
ISABELA: Passing over/near the towns of Divilacan or Palanan...[ETA: 9:00-11:00 AM Local Time, Today].
SOUTHERN CAGAYAN: Passing near/over Tuguegarao City [ETA: 12:00-2:00 PM Today].
ILOCOS SUR: Passing near/over Vigan City [ETA: 5:00-7:00 AM Today].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NALGAE's (QUIEL's) compact but intense circulation rapidly getting stronger with a small 5-km eye emerging on satellite imageries awhile ago. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
SMALL EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...expected to landfall off the shores of Isabela before 12 noon today. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...expected to reach the shores of Cagayan-Isabela this morning. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas...but will approach the coastal areas of Isabela & Cagayan Saturday in the next few hours. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Northern & Northeastern Luzon. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 220 mm (high) along areas near the center of NALGAE (QUIEL). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic). COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Northeastern Luzon today. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA) has tracked NNW but remains weak. Its developing center was located about 1156 km ESE of Surigao City (10.5N 135.5E)...maximum sustained winds of 35 kph. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential remains at MEDIUM (40%).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3) 
Now In Effect: CAGAYAN, ISABELA, NORTHERN AURORA, QUIRINO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, IFUGAO, MT. PROVINCE, KALINGA, APAYAO, & ABRA.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: REST OF AURORA, NUEVA ECIJA, PANGASINAN, BENGUET, LA UNION, ILOCOS PROVS, CALAYAN & BABUYAN ISLANDS.
The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and 100-185 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: NORTHERN QUEZON, POLILLO, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, & BATANES.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
External Links for TY NALGAE (QUIEL)
PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2211.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
TYPHOON2000 CURRENT STORMTRACK:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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