for Friday, 14 October 2011 [5:45 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday Oct 11 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on BANYAN (RAMON).
BANYAN (RAMON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BANYAN [RAMON/23W/1120]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 015
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Fri 14 October 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #018/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression BANYAN (RAMON) weakens as it continued moving Northward across the West Philippine Sea.
Residents and visitors along Hainan & Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of BANYAN (RAMON).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri October 14 2011
Location of Center: 18.4º N Lat 117.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 370 km WNW of Vigan City
Distance 2: 381 km West of Laoag City
Distance 3: 403 km NW of San Fernando City
Distance 4: 514 km SE of Hong Kong
Distance 5: 558 km SE of Macau
Distance 6: 608 km NW of Metro Manila
Distance 7: 690 km ESE of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 8: 969 km ENE of Da Nang, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: West Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 60 mm (Moderate)
Rainrate (near center): 15-20 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM HKT Fri Oct 14
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
BANYAN (RAMON) is expected to move NW to WNW-ward during the next 24 hrs...with a sudden West to WSW turn through 72 hours. A decrease on its forward speed is likely during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of the depression will pass to the southeast of Hainan Island on Monday.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. BANYAN (RAMON) is a weak Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale...and could re-intensify back to Tropical Storm status on Sunday.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Re-intensifying over the West Philippine Sea...turns WNW [2PM OCT 15: 20.0N 116.1E @ 55kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Upgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) as it tracks WSW [2PM OCT 16: 18.9N 113.7E @ 65kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) while passing well to the southeast of Hainan Island [2PM OCT 17: 17.2N 111.1E @ 55kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land mass. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 40 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 41 to 60 mm (Moderate) along areas near the center of BANYAN (RAMON). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD BANYAN (RAMON)
PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2311.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD BANYAN (RAMON)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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