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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday Oct 11 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on BANYAN (RAMON).
BANYAN (RAMON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BANYAN [RAMON/23W/1120]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 010
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Thu 13 October 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #012/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression BANYAN (RAMON) now over the West Philippine Sea, after passing near Northern Palawan last night...weakens slightly. Displaced rainbands still affecting Calamian Group of Islands, Mindoro, Western Panay & portions of Southwestern Luzon.
Residents and visitors along Hainan & Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of BANYAN (RAMON).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Thu October 13 2011
Location of Center: 11.3º N Lat 117.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 221 km NW of Puerto Princesa
Distance 2: 304 km WSW of Coron Is.
Distance 3: 350 km ENE of Pagasa Is., Spratlys
Distance 4: 384 km WNW of Cuyo Is.
Distance 5: 410 km WSW of San Jose, Occ. Mindoro
Distance 6: 443 km SW of Puerto Galera
Distance 7: 484 km WSW of Boracay
Distance 8: 535 km SW of Metro Manila
Distance 9: 561 km WNW of Iloilo City
Distance 10: 562 km WNW of Guimaras Is.
Distance 11: 595 km WNW of Bacolod City
Distance 12: 670 km WSW of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 33 kph (18 kts)
Towards: West Philippine Sea
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 25 mm (Low)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM PhT Thu Oct 13
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
BANYAN (RAMON) is expected to resume moving WNW to NW-ward during the next 2 to 3 days...with a decrease on its forward speed later in the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of the depression will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight or Friday...and will turn more westward as it approaches the southern coast of Hainan on Sunday.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. BANYAN (RAMON) is a weak Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale...and should re-intensify back to a Tropical Storm on Saturday.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensified slightly as it exits the PAR [2AM OCT 14: 13.6N 115.7E @ 55kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Regains Tropical Storm (TS) status while moving NW across the West Philippine Sea [2AM OCT 15: 16.1N 113.8E @ 65kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to slowly strengthen...turns Westward towards Southern Hainan-Vietnam Area [2AM OCT 16: 17.2N 112.0E @ 75kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
DISPLACED RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Western Panay, Calamian Group of Islands, Mindoro & Southwestern Luzon incl. Metro Manila. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 15 mm (low rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 16 to 25 mm (low) along areas near the center of BANYAN (RAMON). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: MARINDUQUE, MINDORO, LUBANG ISLAND, ROMBLON, SOUTHERN QUEZON, NORTHERN PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, CAVITE, LAGUNA, BATANGAS, BATAAN, SOUTHERN ZAMBALES & METRO MANILA.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today...with improving weather conditions later tonight or tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
External Links for TD BANYAN (RAMON)
PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2311.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
TYPHOON2000 LATEST STORMTRACK:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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