Bushman's Typhoon Blog: October 2011

Saturday, October 15, 2011

TD BANYAN [RAMON] - Final Update

for Saturday, 15 October 2011 [1:00 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Oct 15 2011):

Ending the 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on BANYAN (RAMON) as the system dissipates..

BANYAN (RAMON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BANYAN [RAMON/23W/1120]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 017 **FINAL**
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Sat 15 October 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Final Warning #020/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)

Tropical Depression BANYAN (RAMON) dissipating over the West Philippine Sea.

*This is the last and final advisory on BANYAN.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat October 15 2011
Location of Center: 20.3º N Lat 117.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 384 km SE of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 448 km SE of Macau
Distance 3: 418 km NW of Laoag City
Distance 4: 490 km West of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 402 km SW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 6: 722 km ENE of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 7: 1068 km NE of Da Nang, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: West Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 25 mm (Low)
Rainrate (near center): 15-20 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Final Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM HKT Sat Oct 15

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

DISSIPATING RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land mass. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 10 mm (low rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 11 to 25 mm (low) along areas near the center of BANYAN (RAMON). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TD BANYAN (RAMON)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2311.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1 day Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

_____________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete final details on TD BANYAN (RAMON)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

__._,_.___

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__,_._,___

TD BANYAN [RAMON] - Update #016

for Saturday, 15 October 2011 [6:49 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday Oct 11 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on BANYAN (RAMON).

BANYAN (RAMON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BANYAN [RAMON/23W/1120]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 016
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Sat 15 October 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Final Warning #020/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)

Tropical Depression BANYAN (RAMON) decaying as it slows down while over the West Philippine Sea.

Residents and visitors along Hainan & Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of BANYAN (RAMON).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat October 15 2011
Location of Center: 19.6º N Lat 116.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 403 km SE of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 448 km SE of Macau
Distance 3: 419 km WNW of Laoag City
Distance 4: 542 km WSW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 485 km SW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 6: 673 km ENE of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 7: 1000 km ENE of Da Nang, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: West Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 25 mm (Low)
Rainrate (near center): 15-20 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Final Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM HKT Sat Oct 15

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

BANYAN (RAMON) is expected to move WNW-ward during the next 12 hrs...with a sudden Westerly turn through 24 hours. A decrease on its forward speed is likely during the next 24 hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. BANYAN (RAMON) is a weak Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale...and is likely to dissipate over the unfavourable environment of the West Philippine Sea in 24 hours.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into an area of low pressure...decaying along the West Philippine Sea [2AM OCT 16: 19.8N 116.4E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

_____________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD BANYAN (RAMON)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

__._,_.___

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Messages in this topic (1)

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__,_._,___

Friday, October 14, 2011

TD BANYAN [RAMON] - Update #015

for Friday, 14 October 2011 [5:45 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday Oct 11 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on BANYAN (RAMON).

BANYAN (RAMON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BANYAN [RAMON/23W/1120]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 015
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Fri 14 October 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #018/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)

Tropical Depression BANYAN (RAMON) weakens as it continued moving Northward across the West Philippine Sea.

Residents and visitors along Hainan & Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of BANYAN (RAMON).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri October 14 2011
Location of Center: 18.4º N Lat 117.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 370 km WNW of Vigan City
Distance 2: 381 km West of Laoag City
Distance 3: 403 km NW of San Fernando City
Distance 4: 514 km SE of Hong Kong
Distance 5: 558 km SE of Macau
Distance 6: 608 km NW of Metro Manila
Distance 7: 690 km ESE of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 8: 969 km ENE of Da Nang, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: West Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 60 mm (Moderate)
Rainrate (near center): 15-20 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM HKT Fri Oct 14

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

BANYAN (RAMON) is expected to move NW to WNW-ward during the next 24 hrs...with a sudden West to WSW turn through 72 hours. A decrease on its forward speed is likely during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of the depression will pass to the southeast of Hainan Island on Monday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. BANYAN (RAMON) is a weak Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale...and could re-intensify back to Tropical Storm status on Sunday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Re-intensifying over the West Philippine Sea...turns WNW [2PM OCT 15: 20.0N 116.1E @ 55kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Upgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) as it tracks WSW [2PM OCT 16: 18.9N 113.7E @ 65kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) while passing well to the southeast of Hainan Island [2PM OCT 17: 17.2N 111.1E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land mass. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 40 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 41 to 60 mm (Moderate) along areas near the center of BANYAN (RAMON). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TD BANYAN (RAMON)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2311.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

_____________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD BANYAN (RAMON)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

__._,_.___

Reply to sender | Reply to group | Reply via web post | Start a New Topic

Messages in this topic (1)

Recent Activity:

New Members 6

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MARKETPLACE

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__,_._,___

TD BANYAN [RAMON] - Update #014

for Friday, 14 October 2011 [12:23 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday Oct 11 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on BANYAN (RAMON).

BANYAN (RAMON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BANYAN [RAMON/23W/1120]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 014
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Fri 14 October 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #017/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)

Tropical Depression BANYAN (RAMON) moving rapidly northward across the West Philippine Sea...exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Eastern outermost rainbands retreats into the West Philippine Sea...no longer affecting Luzon.

Residents and visitors along Hainan & Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of BANYAN (RAMON).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri October 14 2011
Location of Center: 17.9º N Lat 116.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 383 km WNW of Vigan City
Distance 2: 403 km WSW of Laoag City
Distance 3: 399 km WNW of San Fernando City
Distance 4: 559 km SSE of Hong Kong
Distance 5: 583 km SSE of Macau
Distance 6: 588 km NW of Metro Manila
Distance 7: 680 km ESE of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 8: 936 km ENE of Da Nang, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Towards: Hainan-Vietnam Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-20 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM HKT Fri Oct 14

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

BANYAN (RAMON) is expected to move NW to WNW-ward during the next 24 hrs...with a sudden West to WSW turn through 72 hours. A decrease on its forward speed is likely during the outlook period. On the forecast track, the core of the depression will pass just to the southeast of Hainan Island on Monday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. BANYAN (RAMON) is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale...and should re-intensify back to Tropical Storm status later tonight.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Regains Tropical Storm status while outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...turns Westward [8AM OCT 15: 19.1N 114.9E @ 75kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Continues to gain strength as it turns WSW towards to the south of Hainan [8AM OCT 16: 18.2N 112.6E @ 85kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Passing to the south of Hainan Island towards Vietnam [8AM OCT 17: 17.0N 110.1E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...no longer affecting Luzon. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (High) along areas near the center of BANYAN (RAMON). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TD BANYAN (RAMON)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2311.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

_____________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD BANYAN (RAMON)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm