Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MAWAR [AMBO]

for Tuesday, 05 June 2012 [6:09 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday June 02 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MAWAR (AMBO).

MAWAR MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 115 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON MAWAR [AMBO/04W/1203]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 014
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Tue 05 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #019/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon MAWAR (AMBO) breaking down rapidly as it tracks swiftly northeastward...may be downgraded into a Tropical Storm later tonight. Outer rainbands spreading across Southern Japan, Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands.

Sailors, Mariners and Sea Navigators near its path should closely monitor the progress of MAWAR (AMBO).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue June 05 2012
Location of Eye: 28.0º N Lat 133.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 330 km East of Naje Is.
Distance 2: 550 km ENE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 613 km South of Kochi, Japan
Distance 4: 671 km SSW of Tanabe, Japan
Distance 5: 1,058 km SW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 43 kph (23 kts)
Towards: NW Pacific Ocean
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 650 km (350 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 31 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Tue June 05

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

MAWAR is expected to continue moving fast, ENE-ward for the next 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of MAWAR will pass well to the south of Honshu, Japan on Wednesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased rapidly to near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. MAWAR will continue to decay as it moves into cooler sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and unfavorable upper-level environment of the NW Pacific Ocean. The system will become an Extratropical Cyclone on Wednesday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 35 kilometers (20 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 260 kilometers (140 nautical miles). MAWAR is an averaged-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 650 kilometers (350 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Attains Extratropical status...accelerating ENE-ward across the open seas to the south of Kuril Islands [2PM JUN 06: 32.9N 142.9E @ 95kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

DECAYING CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Northwest Pacific Ocean). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
DECAYING EYEWALL - over water (Northwest Pacific Ocean). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Northwest Pacific Ocean)...no longer affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands, & Southern Japan. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of MAWAR (AMBO). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern Japan, Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Southern Japan. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY MAWAR (AMBO)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0412.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 Hours Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: MAWAR's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

_____________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY MAWAR (AMBO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm