Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MAWAR [AMBO]

for Sunday, 03 June 2012 [7:27 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday June 02 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MAWAR (AMBO).

MAWAR MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON MAWAR [AMBO/04W/1203]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 006
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sun 03 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #009/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon MAWAR (AMBO) gained more strength as it starts to recurve to the north and NNE away from NE Luzon.

MAWAR (AMBO) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Metro Manila, Bicol Region, Southern & Central Luzon incl. Mindoro & Marinduque, Palawan and Visayas. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will be rough & dangerous.

Residents and visitors along the northeast coast of Luzon should closely monitor the progress of MAWAR (AMBO).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun June 03 2012
Location of Eye: 18.7º N Lat 124.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 295 km NE of Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 2: 339 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 350 km ENE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 353 km ESE of Calayan Is.
Distance 5: 355 km SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 6: 358 km ENE of Ilagan City
Distance 7: 399 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 8: 592 km NNE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 9: 603 km NNE of Metro Manila
Distance 10: 920 km SSW of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: North Philippine Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 520 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 610 km (330 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Sun June 03

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

MAWAR is expected move NNE for the next 12 to 24 hours before turning NE to ENE-ward over the next 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of MAWAR will pass to the southeast of Okinawa, Japan on Tuesday early morning and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 150 km/hr (80 knots) with higher gusts. MAWAR is expected to continue gaining strength reaching Category 2 status later tonight or early Monday. It will start losing strength beginning Tuesday - as the system moves into an area of cooler sea surface and starts transitioning into an Extratropical Cyclone.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 30 kilometers (15 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 280 kilometers (150 nautical miles). MAWAR is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 610 kilometers (330 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Attains Category 2 status...accelerating slightly NNE [2AM JUN 04: 20.5N 125.8E @ 165kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to weaken slowly as it passes to the SSE of Okinawa...exits PAR [2AM JUN 05: 24.3N 128.5E @ 160kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Category 1 typhoon while passing well to the south of Japan...becoming Extratropical [2AM JUN 06: 27.9N 133.2E @ 140kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
THIN-OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Coastal areas of Cagayan and Isabela and Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Group of Islands. Cloudy/Drizzle Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 520 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of MAWAR (AMBO). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Group of Islands, Isabela, and Cagayan. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & Southern Luzon including Bicol Region. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY MAWAR (AMBO)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0412.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: MAWAR's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY MAWAR (AMBO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm