Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon GUCHOL [BUTCHOY]

for Monday, 18 June 2012 [6:13 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday June 15 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS (except SMART/TNT - due to technical adjustments) & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).

GUCHOL MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON GUCHOL [BUTCHOY/05W/1204]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 023
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Mon 18 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #030/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) weakens to Category 3 as it moves faster NNE towards Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands...exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Typhoon GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Western Luzon today. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas along the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will be moderate to rough & dangerous.

Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, particularly Okinawa and Ryukyu and Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon June 18 2012
Location of Eye: 24.9� N Lat 128.3� E Lon
Distance 1: 157 km SSE of Naha, Okinawa
Distance 2: 174 km SSE of Kadena Airbase
Distance 3: 185 km SSE of Okinawa City
Distance 4: 406 km East of Ishigaki Jima
Distance 5: 437 km SSW of Naje Island
Distance 6: 675 km East of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 7: 807 km NE of Itbayat, Batanes.
Distance 8: 817 km NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 9: 937 km NE of Calayan Island
Distance 10: 993 km NNE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 11: 1,370 km NNE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 195 kph (105 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 240 kph (130 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 33 kph (18 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 780 km (420 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 52 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Mon June 18

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) is expected to move north-northeast to northeastward for the next 2 to 3 days. On the forecast track, the core of GUCHOL will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early tonight and will be passing close to the east of Okinawa just before midnight. GUCHOL will finally be making landfall over Eastern Shikoku and cross Central Honshu on Tuesday evening, passing very near or over Kyoto, Japan. The system will move out into the Sea of Japan on Wednesday and traverse Hokkaido by early Wednesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 195 km/hr (105 knots) with higher gusts. Continued decrease in its strength is anticipated as GUCHOL moves into an area of unfavorable atmospheric conditions and starts transitioning into an Extratropical Cyclone on Wednesday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 305 kilometers (165 nautical miles. GUCHOL is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 780 kilometers (420 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to Category 1 as it bears down the coast of Shikoku, Japan...accelerating very rapidly NE-ward [2PM JUN 19: 32.7N 133.7E @ 130kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) while over Hokkaido, Japan...becomes Extratropical [2PM JUN 20: 42.3N 141.1E @ 85kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: A weakening Extratropical system turning ESE-ward off to the south of Kuril Islands [2PM JUN 21: 42.1N 149.0E @ 65kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas...expected to reach Okinawa later tonight and across other parts of Ryukyus early Tuesday. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Okinawa and will reach other parts of Ryukyus tonight. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of Guchol (Butchoy). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Philippines, Southern Japan and Taiwan. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Sunny to cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY GUCHOL (BUTCHOY)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: GUCHOL's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY GUCHOL (BUTCHOY)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm