Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MAWAR [AMBO]

for Monday, 04 June 2012 [7:24 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday June 02 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MAWAR (AMBO).

MAWAR MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 135 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON MAWAR [AMBO/04W/1203]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Mon 04 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #013/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon MAWAR (AMBO) has stalled its intensification trend and may have already reached its peak. Currently moving North to NNE during the past 12 hours...expected to move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early tomorrow.

MAWAR (AMBO) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Palawan and the western sections of Luzon and Visayas including Mindoro and Metro Manila. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will be rough & dangerous.

Residents and visitors along Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the progress of MAWAR (AMBO).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon June 04 2012
Location of Eye: 21.4º N Lat 125.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 396 km SSE of Ishigaki Jima
Distance 2: 417 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 430 km ENE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 4: 515 km ENE of Calayan Is.
Distance 5: 551 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 6: 564 km SSW of Naha, Okinawa
Distance 7: 588 km SSW of Kadena Airbase, Okinawa
Distance 8: 599 km SSW of Okinawa City
Distance 9: 610 km NE of Tuguegarao City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph (95 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph (115 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 795 km (430 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Mon June 04

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

MAWAR is expected to move NE for the next 24 hours, before turning ENE-ward during the next 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of MAWAR will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and pass to the southeast of Okinawa, Japan on Tuesday early morning. By Wednesday and Thursday, the typhoon will be passing well to the south of Honshu, Japan.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 175 km/hr (95 knots) with higher gusts. MAWAR is likely to have reached its peak strength and may start to weaken beginning Tuesday. This system will start transitioning into an Extratropical Cyclone on Thursday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 285 kilometers (155 nautical miles). MAWAR is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 795 kilometers (430 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to weaken as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...passing to the SE of Okinawa, Japan [2AM JUN 05: 24.5N 128.4E @ 165kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to weaken...downgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon...moving away from Okinawa, Japan [2AM JUN 06: 28.9N 134.7E @ 140kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) while passing well to the south of Honshu, Japan...becoming Extratropical [2AM JUN 07: 33.5N 144.2E @ 95kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

RAGGED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of MAWAR (AMBO). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon and Southern Japan. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY MAWAR (AMBO)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0412.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: MAWAR's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY MAWAR (AMBO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm