Monday, July 23, 2018

Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) Final Update

 

Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) Final Update

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (JOSIE) UPDATE NO. 07 [FINAL]

Issued at: 6:45 AM PhT (22:45 GMT) Monday, 23 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) currently exiting the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it maintains its strength but with its circulation shrinking.

This is the Final Update on this weak tropical cyclone.

24-hr Outlook: TD 13W (JOSIE) may become a Tropical Storm (TS) briefly before dissipating due to its interaction with the land mass of Eastern China. It will therefore maintain  its north-northwestward track at a faster forward speed of 29 km/hr, and shall make landfall over Eastern China as a dissipating system tomorrow, Tuesday early morning (July 24).  

The combined effects of TD 13W (JOSIE) & the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy or extreme scattered to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms across the western sections of Luzon including Metro Manila, Bicol Region, CaLaBaRZon, MiMaRoPa, & Western Visayas today.

Where is 13W (JOSIE)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, July 23…2100 GMT. The center was located over the southern  part of the East China Sea (near 25.0°N 123.8°E), about 225 km east of Taipei, Taiwan or 535 km north-northeast of Basco, Batanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)North-Northwest @ 18 kph, towards Eastern China.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)::  None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a TS as it moves along the western part of the East China Sea…about 288 km northeast of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM July 23: 27.1°N 123.3°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Over the onshore areas of Eastern China, making landfall…about 129 km south-southeast of Shanghai, China [2AM July 24: 30.2°N 122.1°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 150 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 280 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon July 23, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 25.0°N Lat 123.8°E Lon
Distance 1: 370 km NE of Taitung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 467 km ESE of Fuzhou, China
Distance 3: 517 km E of Quanzhou, China
Distance 4: 729 km SSE of Shanghai, China
Distance 5: 1194 km NNE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 30.2°N 122.1°E (TD)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): None

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua  for WeatherPhilippines


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Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) Update No. 06

 

Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) Update No. 06

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (JOSIE) UPDATE NO. 06

Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Sunday, 22 July 2018
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday, 23 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) continues to move farther away from Extreme Northern Luzon as it accelerated northeastward during the past 12 hours.  This cyclone is now currently moving along the northwestern part of the North Philippine Sea.

24-hr Outlook: TD 13W (JOSIE) will maintain its strength and shall turn northward at a forward speed of 25 km/hr.  It shall pass over the Yaeyama Islands on or after midnight tomorrow, Monday (July 23) and exit the northwestern border of Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) therefter.  

The combined effects of TD 13W (JOSIE) & the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy or extreme scattered to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms across Extreme Northern Luzon, and the western sections of Northern & Central Luzon including Metro Manila, Bicol Region, CaLaBaRZon, MiMaRoPa, & Western Visayas today.

Where is 13W (JOSIE)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 22…0900 GMT. The center was located over the northwestern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 22.5°N 124.2°E), about 310 km northeast of Itbayat, Batanes or 321 km northeast of Basco, Batanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)Northeast @ 28 kph, towards the Yaeyama Islands
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)::  None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Passing over Yaeyama Islands on a northerly track, about to exit the northwestern border of PAR…about 209 km east of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM July 23: 24.7°N 123.6°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Moving along the southern part of the East China Sea, already outside of PAR…about 288 km northeast of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM July 23: 27.1°N 123.3°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 555 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun July 22, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 22.5°N Lat 124.2°E Lon
Distance 1: 401 km E of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 452 km NE of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 3: 532 km NNE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 602 km NNE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 5: 941 km NNE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 27.1°N 123.3°E (TD)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): None

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua  for WeatherPhilippines

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Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) Update No. 05

 

Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) Update No. 05

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (JOSIE) UPDATE NO. 05

Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Sunday, 22 July 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday, 22 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) has maintained its intensity as it moved northeastward over Batanes Island Group or southern part of Bashi Channel in the past 6 hours. Its rainbands continues to affect Extreme Northern Luzon.

24-hr Outlook: TD 13W (JOSIE) will intensify into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moved north-northeastward at a forward speed of 23 km/hr over Yaeyama Island Group, already near the northwestern border of Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).  

The combined effects of TD 13W (JOSIE) & enhanced Southwest Monsoon (HABAGAT) will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy or extreme scattered to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms across Extreme Northern Luzon, and the western sections of Northern & Central Luzon including Metro Manila, Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa, & Western Visayas today.

Where is 13W (JOSIE)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, July 22…2100 GMT. The center was located over the southern part of the Bashi Channel (near 20.4°N 121.9°E), about 13 km west-southwest of Basco, Batanes or 127 km north-northeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)Northeast @ 19 kph, towards the Yaeyama Island Group
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)::  None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Extreme Northern Luzon – Today

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) while over Yaeyama Island Group, near the northwestern border of PAR…about 272 km east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM July 23: 24.2°N 124.1°E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a TD while over the East China Sea, already outside of PAR…about 255 km south-southeast of Shanghai , China [2AM July 24: 29.3°N 122.9°E @ 55kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 480 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun July 22, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 20.4°N Lat 121.9°E Lon
Distance 1: 229 km N of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 274 km SSE of Taitung , Taiwan
Distance 3: 298 km SE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 4: 336 km N of Tabuk City, Kalinga
Distance 5: 654 km N of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 24.2°N 124.1°E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 29.3°N 122.9°E (TD)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines

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Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) Update No. 04

 

Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) Update No. 04

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (JOSIE) UPDATE NO. 04

Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Sunday, 22 July 2018
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday, 22 July 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 13W (JOSIE) has maintained its strength for the past 6 hours while over the Balintang channel and is currently passing along the northwestern  part of the Babuyan Group of Islands. Its rainbands continue to affect the Extreme Northern Luzon.

24-hr Outlook: TD 13W (JOSIE) will move northeastward across the Balintang Channel at a forward speed of 28 km/hr, passing across the Southern part of the Batanes Group. TD 13W is expected to become a Tropical Storm (TS) while over the eastern part of Bashi Channel on Sunday morning (July 22), and it will be over East Taiwan on Sunday evening.

The combined effects of this depression, the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), & TS Ampil (Inday) will continue to bring light to moderate to at times heavy or extreme scattered to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms across Extreme Northern Luzon, and the western sections of Northern & Central Luzon including Metro Manila today.

Where is 13W (JOSIE)?As of 11:00 PM PhT today, July 21…1500 GMT. The center was located over the central part of the Balintang Channel (near 19.6°N 121.2°E), about 42 km northwest of Calayan Island, Cagayan or 124 km north-northeast of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)Northeast@ 25 kph, towards the Southern Batanes
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)::  None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Northern and Extreme Northern Luzon – Today

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY MORNING: Becomes a TS as it turns northeastward while over the eastern part of Bashi Channel…about 188 km east of Basco, Batanes [8AM July 22: 20.6°N 123.8°E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

SUNDAY EVENING: Slightly intensifies as a TS while over the east of Taiwan…about 360 km east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan [8PM July 22: 23.7°N 124.8°E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

MONDAY EVENING: Exits Philippine Area of responsibility (PAR) and slightly weaken as a TS while over the Southern part of East China Sea…about 288 km NE of Taipei, Taiwan [8PM July 23: 25.5°N 124.6°E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 390 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sat July 21, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 19.6°N Lat 121.2°E Lon
Distance 1: 148 km NNW of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 173 km NNE of Laoag  City, Ilocos Norte
Distance 3: 246 km NNE of Vigan  City, Ilocos Sur
Distance 4: 290 km NNW of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 5: 562 km N of Metro Manila
12 hr.Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.6ºN 123.8ºE (TS)
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 23.7°N 124.8°E (TS)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 25.5°N 124.6°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Redmund G. Nacario for WeatherPhilippines

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