Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS TALIM [CARINA]

for Thursday, 21 June 2012 [1:38 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday June 18 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS (except SMART/TNT - due to technical adjustments) & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALIM.

TALIM MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TALIM [CARINA/06W/1205]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009 **FINAL**
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Thu 21 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #014/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Depression TALIM (CARINA) decaying over the East China Sea as it is being absorbed by strong frontal system.

TALIM (CARINA) will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Northwestern Luzon (from Ilocos Provinces down to La Union) incl. Benguet and Batanes. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along these areas. The seas along the coastal areas along the South China and West Philippine Seas will be moderate to rough & dangerous.

*This is the last and final advisory on TALIM (CARINA).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu June 21 2012
Location of Center: 26.8� N Lat 124.0� E Lon
Distance 1: 245 km NNW of Ishigaki Jima
Distance 2: 312 km NE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 352 km ESE of Wenzhou, China
Distance 4: 379 km West of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 729 km NNE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: ENE @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Towards: East China Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 300 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): 685 km (370 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder Final TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Thu June 21

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

TALIM (CARINA) is expected to move rapidly northeast to east-northeastward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TALIM will move across the East China Sea today and will pass along Southern Kyushu on Friday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. TALIM will eventually dissipate as it approaches Kyushu, Japan.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY MORNING: Dissipated over water...about 136 km ENE of Kagoshima, Japan [8AM JUN 22: 31.9N 132.0E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Batanes Group of Islands and Taiwan. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 300 mm (high) along areas near the center of Talim (Carina). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TD TALIM (CARINA)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0612.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: TALIM's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS TALIM (06W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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