Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 04W [AMBO]

for Friday, 01 June 2012 [1:57 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday June 01 2012):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on AMBO (04W), as it becomes a Tropical Depression.

04W MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W [AMBO]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Fri 01 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #002/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Depression 04W (AMBO) nearing Tropical Storm strength as it tracks northwestward...passing to the east of Catanduanes. Its rainbands affecting the eastern sections of the Bicol Region particularly Catanduanes.

04W is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Bicol Region, Southern Luzon and Western Visayas this weekend. Windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ passing occasional to widespread rains will be expected.

Residents and visitors along the east coast of Luzon & Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of 04W (AMBO).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Fri June 01 2012
Location of Center: 14.7º N Lat 125.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 165 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 194 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 218 km NE of Gota, Caramoan
Distance 4: 260 km ENE of Siruma, CamSur
Distance 5: 267 km NNE of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 6: 271 km NE of Legazpi City
Distance 7: 286 km ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 8: 298 km ENE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 9: 410 km SE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 10: 419 km East of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 11: 495 km East of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: North Philippine Sea
NOAA 12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) [Avg]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Mon June 01

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

04W is expected to continue moving NW-ward for the next 12 hours before making a sharp recurvature towards the NE, across the open waters of the North Philippine Sea.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 04W is expected to continue gaining strength and will become a Tropical Storm later today and a typhoon on Sunday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Upgraded to a Tropical Storm as it moves northward...passing to the east of Cagayan [8AM JUN 02: 17.5N 124.4E @ 85kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon as it recurves northeastward towards the open waters of the North Philippine Sea [8AM JUN 03: 20.1N 125.5E @ 120kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Reaches Category 2 strength while continues its NE track away from the Philippines [8AM JUN 04: 22.7N 128.2E @ 160kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Bicol Region particularly Caramoan Peninsula and Catanduanes Island. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of 04W (AMBO). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TD 04W (AMBO)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0312.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: 04W's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

_____________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 04W (AMBO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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