Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS TALIM [06W]

for Monday, 18 June 2012 [1:04 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday June 18 2012):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS (except SMART/TNT - due to technical adjustments) & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALIM.

TALIM MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 80 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL STORM TALIM [06W/1205]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Mon 18 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #002/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

The strong disturbance (LPA) over the South China Sea has strengthened and is now known as Tropical Storm TALIM (06W)...threatens Batanes and Taiwan Area as it moves East slowly. TALIM is a filipino/tagalog word for sharp.

TALIM (06W) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Vietnam and the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along these areas. The seas along the coastal areas along the South China and West Philippine Seas will be moderate to rough & dangerous.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Southeastern China and Extreme Northern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of TALIM (06W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Mon June 18 2012
Location of Center: 18.7º N Lat 112.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 248 km ESE of Qionghai, Hainan Is.
Distance 2: 398 km SSW of Macau
Distance 3: 426 km South of Hong Kong
Distance 4: 390 km West of P.A.R.
Distance 5: 824 km WNW of Laoag City
Distance 6: 892 km WSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 7: 917 km WSW of Calayan Island.
Distance 8: 984 km WSW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 9: 970 km WSW of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 10: 1,146 km SW of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: East @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Batanes-Taiwan Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 610 km (330 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 9 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Mon June 18

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

TALIM is expected to move east-northeastward for the next 2 to 3 days. On the forecast track, the core of TALIM will enter the northwestern corner of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Wednesday and make landfall over Western Taiwan...passing over or very close to Taipei around noontime Wednesday. TALIM will be moving across the East China Sea on Thursday, passing just to the north of Okinawa.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. TALIM will continue to gain strength reaching peak wind intensity of 100 km/hr by Wednesday before making landfall over Western Taiwan.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 35 kilometers (20 nautical miles from the center. TALIM is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 610 kilometers (330 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY MORNING: Gaining strength while over the northern part of the South China Sea...moving ENE towards Western Taiwan...about 256 km SW of Hong Kong, China [8AM JUN 19: 20.3N 115.6E @ 85kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Just along the West Coast of Taiwan...gaining strength as it begin to make landfall over the area [8AM JUN 20: 23.5N 119.8E @ 100kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Weakened to a minimal Tropical Storm as it passes to the north of Okinawa [8AM JUN 21: 28.3N 125.9E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

. INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (high) along areas near the center of Talim (06W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Hainan Island and Southern China. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Western Luzon and Vietnam. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS TALIM (06W)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0612.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: TALIM's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

_____________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS TALIM (06W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm