Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS GUCHOL [05W]

for Tuesday, 12 June 2012 [6:53 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday June 11 2012):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on GUCHOL (05W).

GUCHOL MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): --- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL STORM GUCHOL [05W/1204]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Tue 12 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #006/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm 05W has slowed its westward movement...now internationally named GUCHOL - a Yapese word for the spice turmeric.

GUCHOL (05W) is forecast to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) Mindanao beginning Wednesday and across Visayas, Western & Southern Luzon incl. Palawan, Mindoro & Metro Manila this weekend. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will become moderate to rough.

Residents and visitors along Yap, Ulithi, Palau and the rest of Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of GUCHOL (05W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue June 12 2012
Location of Center: 9.7º N Lat 142.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 465 km SSW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 516 km East of Yap, FSM
Distance 3: 855 km East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 951 km ENE of Koror, Palau
Distance 5: 1,896 km East of Surigao City, PHL
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Yap-Ulithi Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 220 km (120 nm) [Small]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Tue June 12

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

GUCHOL is expected to move generally WNW-ward for the next 48 hours, before turning slightly NW-ward by 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of GUCHOL will pass to the north of Yap and Ulithi Islands by early Thursday morning and will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by late Thursday evening.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. GUCHOL will continue gaining strength and will become a Typhoon (TY) on Thursday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifying as it passes in between Guam and Yap Islands [2PM JUN 13: 10.8N 140.0E @ 95kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Typhoon as it moves away from Yap and Ulithi Islands...approaching PAR [2PM JUN 14: 12.2N 136.4E @ 120kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Well-within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves across the Philippine Sea...continues to strengthen...about 836 km ENE of Bicol Region, Philippines [2PM JUN 15: 14.7N 132.0E @ 130kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not yet affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not yet affecting any land areas...expected to reach Yap and Ulithi Islands later tonight or early Wednesday. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of 05W (UNNAMED). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Yap, Ulithi, Guam, Palau and other nearby islands of Micronesia and Mariana. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern Philippines. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS GUCHOL (05W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: 05W's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS GUCHOL (05W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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