Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MAWAR [AMBO]

for Wednesday, 06 June 2012 [9:23 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday June 06 2012):

Ending the 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MAWAR (AMBO).

MAWAR MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL STORM MAWAR [AMBO/04W/1203]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 015 **FINAL**
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Wed 06 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #021/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

MAWAR (AMBO) downgraded into a Tropical Storm as it starts transitioning into an Extratropical Cyclone while moving rapidly ENE across the Northwest Pacific Ocean.

*This is the last and final advisory on MAWAR (AMBO).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed June 06 2012
Location of Center: 30.7º N Lat 139.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 496 km SE of Tanabe, Japan
Distance 2: 488 km NNW of Chichi Jima
Distance 3: 557 km South of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: ENE @ 68 kph (37 kts)
Towards: NW Pacific Ocean
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 760 km (410 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 27 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder Final TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Wed June 06

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

MAWAR will continue moving fast, ENE-ward for the next 12 to 24 hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased rapidly to near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. MAWAR will continue to decay as it moves into cooler sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and unfavorable upper-level environment of the NW Pacific Ocean. The system will become an Extratropical Cyclone early Thursday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 250 kilometers (135 nautical miles) from the center. MAWAR is an averaged-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 760 kilometers (410 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Attains Extratropical status...accelerating ENE-ward across the open seas to the south of Kuril Islands [2AM JUN 07: 38.4N 150.5E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Northwest Pacific Ocean)...no longer affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Coastal areas of Southern Japan. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of MAWAR (AMBO). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern Japan. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Japan. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS MAWAR (AMBO)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0412.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 Hours Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: MAWAR's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS MAWAR (AMBO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm