Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon GUCHOL [BUTCHOY]

for Monday, 18 June 2012 [1:04 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday June 15 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS (except SMART/TNT - due to technical adjustments) & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).

GUCHOL MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON GUCHOL [BUTCHOY/05W/1204]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 022
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Mon 18 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #029/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Powerful Typhoon GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) continues losing strength as it accelerates rapidly towards Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands...will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early tonight.

Typhoon GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Western Luzon today. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas along the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will be moderate to rough & dangerous.

Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, particularly Okinawa and Ryukyu and Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Mon June 18 2012
Location of Eye: 23.4� N Lat 127.7� E Lon
Distance 1: 311 km South of Naha, Okinawa
Distance 2: 334 km South of Kadena Airbase
Distance 3: 345 km South of Okinawa City
Distance 4: 380 km ESE of Ishigaki Jima
Distance 5: 644 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 6: 670 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 7: 673 km ENE of Itbayat, Batanes.
Distance 8: 787 km NE of Calayan Is.
Distance 9: 843 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 10: 898 km NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 11: 1,199 km NNE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 215 kph (115 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 260 kph (140 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 60 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Mon June 18

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) is expected to move northeastward for the next 2 to 3 days. On the forecast track, the core of GUCHOL will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early tonight and will be passing close to the east of Okinawa around midnight. GUCHOL will finally be making landfall over Southern Honshu passing just north of Metropolitan Tokyo on Wednesday, and move out into the North Pacific Ocean Thursday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 215 km/hr (115 knots) with higher gusts. Continued decrease in its strength is anticipated as GUCHOL moves into unfavorable atmospheric conditions and starts transitioning into an Extratropical Cyclone by Wednesday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 305 kilometers (165 nautical miles. GUCHOL is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 835 kilometers (450 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY MORNING: Weakens to Category 2...accelerating rapidly NNE to NE-ward, farther away from Okinawa and Ryukyus...about 143 km ENE of Naje Is., Japan [8AM JUN 19: 29.0N 131.2E @ 160kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS)...makes landfall over Southern Honshu, just west of Tokyo...becomes Extratropical [8AM JUN 20: 35.7N 139.1E @ 95kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Weakening as it moves swiftly across the North Pacific Ocean, just south of Kuril Islands [8AM JUN 21: 41.1N 149.5E @ 65kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas...expected to reach Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands later tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas...but expected to Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands later this afternoon. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of Guchol (Butchoy). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Philippines, Southern Japan and Taiwan. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Sunny to cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY GUCHOL (BUTCHOY)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: GUCHOL's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY GUCHOL (BUTCHOY)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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