Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MAWAR [AMBO]

for Sunday, 03 June 2012 [6:10 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday June 02 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MAWAR (AMBO).

MAWAR MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON MAWAR [AMBO/04W/1203]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sun 03 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #011/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon MAWAR (AMBO) maintains its intensification trend and is likely to become a Category 3 storm later tonight. Currently moving NE-ward in the direction of the Southern Islands of Japan.

MAWAR (AMBO) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Metro Manila, Bicol Region, Rest of Luzon incl. Mindoro & Marinduque, Palawan and the Visayas. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will be rough & dangerous.

Residents and visitors along Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the progress of MAWAR (AMBO).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun June 03 2012
Location of Eye: 19.8º N Lat 125.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 394 km ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 422 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 444 km ENE of Calayan Is.
Distance 4: 458 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 487 km NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 6: 545 km SSE of Ishigaki Jima
Distance 7: 739 km NNE of Naga City
Distance 8: 765 km SSW of Kadena Airbase, Okinawa
Distance 9: 757 km NNE of Metro Manila
Distance 10: 775 km SSW of Okinawa City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph (95 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph (115 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 510 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Sun June 03

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

MAWAR is expected to move NNE for the next 12 to 24 hours, before turning NE to ENE-ward during the next 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of MAWAR will pass to the southeast of Okinawa, Japan on Tuesday early morning and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). By Wednesday afternoon, the typhoon will be downgraded to a Tropical Storm as it encounters unfavorable atmospheric conditions (lower sea surface temperatures & increasing upper-level winds e.g. vertical wind shear).

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 175 km/hr (95 knots) with higher gusts. MAWAR is expected to reach Category 3 status later tonight or early Monday, before losing strength sometime Tuesday. It will start transitioning into an Extratropical Cyclone by Wednesday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 285 kilometers (155 nautical miles). MAWAR is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers (360 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Attains Category 3 status...accelerates NNE towards Okinawa-Ryukyu Area [2PM JUN 04: 22.7N 127.1E @ 195kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Starts decaying...weakens to Category 1 after passing to the SE of Okinawa...exits PAR [2PM JUN 05: 26.7N 131.4E @ 150kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) while passing well to the south of Honshu, Japan...becoming Extratropical [2PM JUN 06: 30.7N 138.7E @ 100kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CLOUD-FILLED/RAGGED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...no longer affecting any land areas. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 510 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of MAWAR (AMBO). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Group of Islands, Isabela and Cagayan. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & Southern Luzon including Bicol Region. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY MAWAR (AMBO)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0412.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: MAWAR's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

_____________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY MAWAR (AMBO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm